现货价格相对坚挺，铜价维持震荡格局

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral [7] - Arbitrage: Suspended [7] - Options: Suspended [7] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - This week, the Shanghai copper price showed a fluctuating downward trend, mainly due to the expansion of the Comex - LME spread under the influence of Trump's tariff policy, which led to the decline of copper prices in non - US markets. The domestic copper price is temporarily suppressed, and the domestic social inventory has increased. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see attitude for now [7]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On July 16, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 77,960 yuan/ton and closed at 77,980 yuan/ton, down 0.14% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 77,810 yuan/ton and closed at 77,950 yuan/ton, down 0.01% from the afternoon close [1]. Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was at a premium of 70 - 120 yuan/ton to the 2508 contract, with an average of 95 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot price range was 77,970 - 78,150 yuan/ton. It is expected that the short - term spot price will remain firm, but the regional price difference may widen [2]. Important Information Summary - Macro and geopolitical: The US June PPI annual rate was 2.3%, the lowest since September 2024, and the monthly rate was 0%. Trump showed a draft letter to fire the Fed Chairman Powell. Traders believe the probability of a Fed rate cut in September exceeds 50%. The EU proposed a nearly 2 - trillion - euro (2.3 - trillion - dollar) budget plan. China's Q2 GDP increased by 5.2% year - on - year [3]. - Mine end: On July 16, Antofagasta's Q2 2025 copper production was 160,100 tons, up 3% quarter - on - quarter, and gold production was 48,300 ounces, up 13% quarter - on - quarter [4]. - Smelting and import: In May 2025, the global refined copper production was 2.3775 million tons, with a supply surplus of 84,200 tons. Freeport Indonesia expects 2025 copper concentrate production to be 2.964 million tons, lower than the previous forecast [5]. - Consumption: On July 16, the copper rod order volume of 31 domestic copper rod producers and 6 traders was 14,000 tons, down 9.38% from the previous day [6]. - Inventory and warehouse receipts: LME warehouse receipts changed by 850 tons to 121,000 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts changed by 109 tons to 50,242 tons. On July 14, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 147,600 tons [6]. 2. Strategy - Copper: Adopt a neutral strategy and wait and see for now [7]. - Arbitrage: Suspend operations [7]. - Options: Suspend operations [7]. 3. Data Table - The table shows data on copper prices, basis, inventory, warehouse receipts, arbitrage, import profitability, and price ratios over different time periods (July 17, 2025; July 16, 2025; July 10, 2025; June 17, 2025) [26][27][28].