2025年6月经济数据点评：顶住压力、迎难而上，上半年GDP增长5.3%

Economic Growth - The actual GDP growth for the first half of 2025 is 5.3%, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2% in Q2, meeting expectations[1] - The industrial production grew by 6.2% year-on-year in Q2, with June showing a growth of 6.8%[1] - The service sector production index increased by 6.1% year-on-year in Q2, up 0.3 percentage points from Q1[1] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth decreased from 3.7% to 2.8% year-on-year due to the impact of "two new" and "two heavy" projects and the real estate market[1] - Infrastructure investment growth for the first half of the year was 8.9% for broad scope and 4.6% for narrow scope (excluding power)[1] - Manufacturing investment growth was 7.5%, with equipment and tool purchases increasing by 17.3% year-on-year[1] Real Estate Market - Real estate investment fell by 11.2% year-on-year in the first half, with the decline accelerating by 0.5 percentage points compared to the first five months[2] - The sales area of commercial housing decreased by 3.5% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 0.6 percentage points compared to the first five months[2] Consumer Spending - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 4.8% year-on-year in June, below the market expectation of 5.6%[2] - The average consumption growth for May and June was 5.6%, indicating a stable consumption level despite the drop in June[2] Export Performance - Exports grew by 5.8% year-on-year in June, surpassing the market expectation of 3.2%[2] - Cumulative exports for the first half of the year increased by 5.9%, demonstrating resilience despite a challenging external trade environment[2] Financial Sector - New social financing in June was 4.2 trillion yuan, exceeding the expected 3.71 trillion yuan, with a total of 22.8 trillion yuan for the first half, an increase of 4.7 trillion yuan year-on-year[3] - The balance of loans showed a year-on-year growth rate decline from 7.5% in January to 7.1% in June[3] Economic Outlook - Economic pressures may increase in the second half of 2025, with GDP growth expectations for Q3 and Q4 projected to decline to 4.9% and 4.6%, respectively[3] - The need for timely and effective incremental policies is emphasized to support economic recovery[3]