Xinda Securities·2025-07-17 05:52Investment Rating - The investment rating for the airline transportation industry is "Positive" [2]. Core Viewpoints - The industry has maintained a high passenger load factor since the beginning of 2025, with domestic flight capacity growth being low while international routes are seeing increased capacity. The supply remains tight with a net fleet growth rate of less than 3% [14]. - The passenger load factor has improved compared to both the previous year and the same period in 2019, particularly in domestic routes. Domestic flight turnover has shown steady growth, while international turnover has significantly recovered to levels close to those of 2019 [14]. - Although ticket prices have shown a weak performance due to increased capacity in the second quarter, there is an expectation for price recovery during the summer travel peak season as demand gradually increases [3][14]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on airlines such as Air China, China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and Juneyao Airlines due to the anticipated recovery in ticket prices driven by improved supply-demand dynamics during the summer peak season [3][14]. Industry Capacity and Ticket Prices - The industry has seen a continuous high passenger load factor, with the flight cancellation rate decreasing as the travel peak season approaches. In May 2025, the industry’s Available Seat Kilometers (ASK) and Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK) increased by 8.0% and 11.5% year-on-year, respectively, with a passenger load factor of 84.6%, up 2.7 percentage points year-on-year [4][16]. - Ticket prices in the second quarter have shown a narrowing decline compared to the previous quarter, with an average ticket price of 848 RMB, down 9.2% year-on-year. The average ticket price in early July was down 7.9% year-on-year [5][27]. Fuel Prices and Exchange Rates - The average price of aviation fuel has decreased significantly, with a year-on-year decline of 12.8% in July. The average aviation kerosene price in the first and second quarters was down 10.0% and 17.0% year-on-year, respectively [6][39]. - The exchange rate has remained stable, with the USD to RMB exchange rate at 7.1526 as of July 16, 2025, a decrease of 0.50% from the end of 2024 [6][39]. Operational Performance of Airlines - In the first half of 2025, domestic airlines have shown low growth in capacity, with the exception of a few airlines. The passenger load factor for major airlines has increased year-on-year, with significant improvements noted in domestic routes [8][46]. - In June 2025, the overall ASK growth for major airlines was led by Spring Airlines at 12.4%, while the international routes have shown recovery rates close to 2019 levels for some airlines [46][49].