蛋白数据日报-20250717

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall weather for US soybeans is suitable, but there is a trend of high - temperature and dryness in Kansas in the second week, which needs further observation. Brazilian discounts have slightly declined but are still expected to be firm. The domestic market is in a inventory - building cycle, with the basis expected to fluctuate at a low level. The import cost is expected to support the 101 contract, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, with a focus on buying on dips [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The excellent - good rate of US soybeans has risen to 70%, higher than last year and market expectations, and the weather will be normal in the next two weeks. Under the pressure of concentrated arrivals of Brazilian soybeans, the domestic soybean supply reduction in July and August is expected to be over one million tons. The pressure of soybean meal inventory accumulation is expected to last until September, and the ship - booking from October to January is slow [7][8]. Demand - Pig and poultry farming are expected to maintain high inventories in the short term, supporting feed demand. Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio, the proportion of feed addition has increased, and提货 is at a high level. Wheat has replaced corn in some areas, reducing the demand for protein. Recently, the trading volume of soybean meal has increased at low prices [8]. Inventory - Domestic soybean inventory has reached a high level; soybean meal is in an inventory - building cycle; the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has increased [8]. Price and Spread - For 43% soybean meal spot basis on July 16th, in Dalian it was - 37, in Rizhao - 157, in Tianjin - 57, in Zhangjiagang - 157 (down 9), in Dongguan - 177, in Zhanjiang - 127, and in Fangcheng - 137. The rapeseed meal spot basis was - 53 (up 2). The M9 - M1 spread was - 34, M9 - RM9 was 3, and RM9 - 1 was 344. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 324, and the futures price difference of the main contract was also provided [6][7]. International Data - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.1322, the futures crushing profit was 265 yuan/ton (down 5), and the import soybean futures gross profit was also mentioned. The CNF premium of imported soybeans was shown in the chart [7].