宏观经济宏观季报：内需支撑中国经济稳健前行

Economic Performance - In Q2 2025, China's nominal GDP was approximately 34.2 trillion yuan, with a real GDP growth of 5.2% year-on-year, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from Q1[1] - The contribution of final consumption, capital formation, and net exports to GDP growth was 2.7, 1.3, and 1.2 percentage points respectively, with contribution rates of 52.3%, 24.7%, and 23.0%[1] Sectoral Analysis - The first, second, and third industries' nominal GDP in Q2 were approximately 1.9 trillion, 12.7 trillion, and 19.5 trillion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.8%, 4.8%, and 5.7% respectively[1] - Industrial value added maintained a high growth rate of 6.2%, while the construction sector experienced a significant decline, impacting the overall growth of the secondary industry[2] Demand Dynamics - Domestic demand showed a "rise in internal and decline in external" pattern, with capital formation's contribution rebounding by 0.8 percentage points to 1.3%[2] - Fixed asset investment and retail sales both saw declines, while industrial output rebounded, indicating a temporary divergence between production and demand[2][3] Future Outlook - For the second half of 2025, GDP growth is projected at 4.9% and 4.8% for Q3 and Q4 respectively, with an annual growth target of approximately 5.1%[3] - The internal demand is expected to recover significantly, supported by the resumption of government subsidies and timely policy interventions[3] Risks - Potential risks include a reduction in policy stimulus and uncertainties in overseas economic policies[4]