GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2025-07-17 07:05Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for China Shenhua [7][14] Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading beneficiary in the coal sector, with expected capacity increases in the future. The report suggests that the coal market has reached its bottom, with supply and demand expected to improve in Q2 2025, enhancing the investment value of Shenhua [2][14] - The forecast for the first half of 2025 indicates a net profit attributable to shareholders of 23.6-25.6 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 13.2%-20%. The second quarter's net profit is projected to be around 12.7 billion yuan, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase [14] - The report anticipates a recovery in coal demand and a decrease in costs, which will mitigate the impact of falling prices. In Q2, the company is expected to achieve coal production of 82.9 million tons and sales of 105 million tons, reflecting a 6.3% increase from Q1 [14] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 343.074 billion yuan, with a slight decrease of 0.4% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 59.694 billion yuan, down 14.3% from the previous year [4][15] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is forecasted at 2.49 yuan, with a gradual increase to 3.25 yuan by 2027. The report adjusts the EPS estimates downward for 2025-2027 [4][15] - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 15.04 for 2025, with a target price set at 44.79 yuan, reflecting a slight decrease from previous estimates [14][16] Market Data - The stock has a 52-week price range of 35.35-43.60 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 744.473 billion yuan [8] - The company has a net asset value per share of 21.80 yuan and a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.7 [9]