商贸零售行业：6月社零数据跟踪报告-6月社零总额同比+4.8%，增速同比提升、环比下降

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as outperforming the market, with an expected relative increase of over 10% in the next six months [46]. Core Insights - In June 2025, China's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 42,287 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, which is an increase of 2.8 percentage points compared to the same period last year, although it represents a month-on-month decline of 1.6 percentage points [2][14]. - The growth rate of retail sales in urban and rural areas has both declined, with urban growth at 4.8% and rural growth at 4.5% [16][21]. - Online retail sales from January to June 2025 totaled 74,295 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 8.5%, accounting for 30.27% of total retail sales [4][38]. Summary by Sections Overall Performance - The total retail sales in June 2025 were 42,287 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 4.8% and a month-on-month decline of 1.6% [2][14]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.1% year-on-year in June, compared to a decrease of 0.1% in May [14][15]. Segment Analysis - Among 16 categories of goods, five categories (Chinese and Western medicines, beverages, tobacco and alcohol, cosmetics, and petroleum products) experienced negative growth, while others showed positive growth, particularly home appliances and audio-visual equipment, cultural office supplies, and furniture, all exceeding 20% growth [3][20]. - Essential goods like grain and oil (+8.7%) and daily necessities (+7.8%) saw a decline in growth rates, while furniture (+28.7%) and automobiles (+4.6%) showed increased growth [20][24]. Online Retail - Online retail sales for the first half of 2025 reached 74,295 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.5% [4][38]. - The cumulative online retail sales of physical goods amounted to 61,191 billion yuan, with a growth of 6.0% [41]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as food and beverages, social services, and retail, highlighting opportunities in the gold and jewelry market due to its appeal as a safe-haven asset, and the cosmetics sector, which is seeing increased acceptance of domestic brands [9][42][44]. - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in home appliances and furniture due to ongoing government subsidies and policies aimed at boosting consumption [8][42].