策略专题：如何定位“市场化反内卷”？

Group 1: Market Analysis - The current "anti-involution" logic differs from supply-side reforms, focusing more on cost monitoring and price adjustments to combat disorderly competition[1] - Industries are evaluated based on "involution" levels, capacity clearance, and elasticity of capacity clearance to identify sectors with potential fundamental improvements[4] - The report identifies three phases of the "anti-involution" market: initial pricing policy expectations, subsequent resource price increases, and stabilization of high prices[3] Group 2: Beneficial Sectors - Two categories of sectors are highlighted: - The first category includes industries at the bottom of the cycle with urgent "anti-involution" demand, such as photovoltaic equipment and general machinery[4] - The second category consists of sectors that have already seen capacity clearance and profit improvements, including home appliances and chemical raw materials[4] - For photovoltaic equipment, inventory and capital expenditure (CAPEX) are declining, indicating initial signs of inventory reduction and potential revenue growth[4] Group 3: Risk Factors - Historical data may have limitations in predicting future trends[4] - Geopolitical risks may exceed expectations, impacting market stability[4] - Uncertainties exist regarding the implementation and effectiveness of policies aimed at capacity clearance[4]