首席点评：外围扰动效应边际递减，国内自主性显著提升

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The marginal effect of external disturbances is decreasing, and domestic autonomy in the chemical industry is significantly increasing. The supply of the domestic chemical industry is expected to gradually see positive changes, and the implementation of "anti - involution" policies in other sectors may boost the valuation of the petrochemical and chemical industry [1]. - For A - shares, from a long - term perspective, the investment value is relatively high. CSI 500 and CSI 1000 may bring higher returns due to more science and innovation policy support, while SSE 50 and SSE 300 have more defensive value in the current macro - environment [3][11]. - The global economy is expected to improve in the second half of this year, and attention should be paid to the OPEC's production increase situation for the crude oil market [2][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Main News on the Day - International News: The Fed's "Beige Book" shows that from late May to early July, economic activity increased slightly, with high uncertainty, and the economic outlook is neutral to slightly pessimistic [6]. - Domestic News: The Third China International Supply Chain Promotion Expo opened in Beijing. China will promote the digital, intelligent, and green transformation and upgrading of the global industrial chain and supply chain [7]. - Industry News: On July 16, the national maximum power load reached a new high, exceeding 15 billion kilowatts [8]. b. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The S&P 500 rose 0.32%, the European STOXX 50 fell 0.67%, the FTSE China A50 futures fell 0.57%, the US dollar index fell 0.35%, ICE Brent crude oil continuous fell 0.22%, and other commodities also had different changes in prices [9]. c. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - Financial Products - Stock Index: The previous trading day's stock index mainly declined. The social services sector led the rise, and the steel sector led the decline. The trading volume was 1.46 trillion yuan. The proportion of medium - and long - term funds in the capital market is expected to gradually increase, which is conducive to reducing stock market volatility [3][11]. - Treasury Bonds: Treasury bonds showed mixed performance. The yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond rose to 1.66%. The central bank's open - market operations had a net investment of 4446 billion yuan. The external environment is more complex, and the central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, but the "anti - involution" policy may increase the volatility of treasury bond futures prices [12]. - Energy and Chemical Products - Crude Oil: SC crude oil had a volatile night session. US refined oil demand decreased compared to the same period last year, and the US crude oil inventory decreased, while gasoline and distillate inventories increased. OPEC predicts that the global economy will improve in the second half of the year [2][13]. - Methanol: Methanol fell 0.59% at night. The average operating load of domestic coal - to - olefin plants decreased, and the coastal methanol inventory increased. Methanol is short - term bullish [14][15]. - Polyolefins: Polyolefins showed weak consolidation. The consumption of polyolefins entered a relative off - season, and the cost support weakened. The market focus returned to the supply - demand side, but the supply - demand repair needs time [16]. - Glass and Soda Ash: Glass futures declined and rebounded slightly at night. The summer maintenance reduced supply, and the glass inventory decreased slightly last week. Soda ash futures mainly declined, and its inventory increased. Both are in the inventory digestion cycle, and attention should be paid to the digestion process [4][17]. - Rubber: The supply of new natural rubber in domestic production areas was affected by rainfall, and the raw rubber price was supported. The overall output in overseas production areas was smooth, and the inventory in Qingdao continued to increase. The market lacks continuous positive support, and the upward space is limited [18]. - Metals - Precious Metals: Overnight, gold and silver rose and then fell, continuing to fluctuate. The short - term expectation of interest rate cuts cooled down. Although the long - term driving force for gold still exists, it is hesitant to rise. Silver is relatively strong [19]. - Copper: The copper price closed lower at night. The smelting output is under test, and the downstream demand is generally stable. The copper price may fluctuate within a range [21]. - Zinc: The zinc price closed higher at night. The supply of concentrates is expected to improve, and the zinc price may fluctuate widely in the short term [22]. - Lithium Carbonate: The weekly production of lithium carbonate decreased, and the inventory increased. The market sentiment improved, and the price rebounded in the short term, but it may still be in a volatile state [23]. - Black Metals - Iron Ore: The demand for iron ore has strong resilience. The global iron ore shipment decreased recently, and the port inventory decreased rapidly. The short - term macro - expectation is strong, and the iron ore price is expected to be strong [24]. - Steel: The supply pressure of steel is gradually emerging, and the inventory continues to decline. The steel export is affected by tariffs and anti - dumping, but the billet export is strong. The supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the steel price is expected to be strong in the short term [25]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The production of coking coal increased last week, and the market had a positive feedback. The supply pressure still exists, and attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" policy and the Politburo meeting in July [26][27]. - Agricultural Products - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal: The USDA report was neutral to bearish, and the US soybean crop rating is good. The domestic supply is abundant, and the soybean meal is expected to fluctuate [28]. - Oils and Fats: The MPOB report was neutral to bearish, but the Malaysian palm oil export increased. With strong demand, the palm oil price is supported, and the overall oils and fats market is expected to fluctuate [29]. - Shipping Index - Container Shipping to Europe: The EC opened higher and fluctuated. The market is still gambling on the peak - season space of the European line. Attention should be paid to the announcement of the shipping company's August freight rates [30].