中观景气7月第3期：乘用车零售超预期，钢价继续反弹

Group 1 - The retail sales of passenger cars exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 18.3% in June, although dealer inventory pressure has slightly increased, raising concerns about the sustainability of market conditions [3][20][12] - The real estate market showed a widening decline in new home sales, with a year-on-year decrease of 25.9% in transaction area across 30 major cities, indicating weak construction demand [12][16] - Steel prices continued to rebound due to expectations of supply contraction, while cement prices have significantly declined due to greater exposure to real estate demand [12][31] Group 2 - Manufacturing activity has seen a month-on-month increase, with notable improvements in the automotive and chemical sectors, reflecting a recovery in downstream demand [12][46] - The construction sector remains under pressure, with the central government emphasizing the need to regulate low-price competition and phase out outdated capacities, which has led to a rebound in steel prices [13][31] - The logistics sector is experiencing growth in passenger transport, with domestic flight operations increasing by 1.6% week-on-week, and freight logistics also showing positive year-on-year growth [14][71] Group 3 - The coal price has continued to rise, with the Qinhuangdao port's Q5500 coal price reported at 632 yuan per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.4% due to higher electricity consumption during the summer [53][54] - Copper prices are under pressure following the announcement of a potential 50% import tariff on copper by the U.S., leading to a decline in both SHFE and LME copper prices [58][59] - The logistics sector's performance remains robust, with a 15.9% year-on-year increase in postal express collection volume, despite a slight week-on-week decline [71][66]