中辉有色观点-20250717

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: High - level oscillation, strategic allocation [1] - Silver: High - level oscillation, maintain a long - position mindset [1][3] - Copper: Oscillation, long - term bullish, short - term pay attention to the risk of pullback [1][6] - Zinc: Under pressure, seize short - selling opportunities on rallies [1][9] - Lead: Under pressure [1] - Tin: Under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Under pressure, focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [1][11] - Nickel: Under pressure, focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [1][13] - Industrial silicon: High - level operation [1] - Polysilicon: High - level operation, take appropriate profit - taking for long positions [1] - Lithium carbonate: High - level oscillation [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The global order is being reshaped, with fiscal and monetary double - easing trends remaining unchanged, and gold is in a long - term bull market. However, short - term adjustments may occur, and the US dollar is in a medium - term weak trend [3]. - For copper, although there is a risk of short - term pullback due to inventory and demand factors, the long - term outlook is positive as copper is an important strategic resource and the global copper mine shortage is difficult to alleviate [6]. - Zinc is facing short - term pressure due to factors such as the repair of processing fees, anti - dumping of overseas steel, and tariff uncertainties. In the long run, supply increases while demand weakens [9]. - Aluminum prices are under pressure as the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains high, inventory accumulates, and the terminal consumption is in the off - season [11]. - Nickel prices are under pressure due to factors such as tariff disturbances, weak terminal demand, and inventory accumulation [13]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are at high levels, but there are also factors restricting their upward movement, such as high inventory for industrial silicon and high prices and margin increases for polysilicon [1]. - Lithium carbonate is in a high - level oscillation, with the market affected by rumors and inventory contradictions, and the fundamentals have marginally improved but the inventory accumulation trend remains [1] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Market Review: Gold and silver maintained high - level oscillation due to low US inflation, ongoing tariff negotiations, and the possible dismissal of Powell [2]. - Basic Logic: US inflation was lower than expected in June; Trump considered dismissing Powell, threatening the independence of the Fed; there are geopolitical issues regarding the Iran nuclear problem; and there are still many tariff variables, with the global order reshaping and fiscal - monetary double - easing trends unchanged [3]. - Strategy Recommendation: Gold has strong support around 760, and the long - term bullish logic remains unchanged. Silver has support at 9000, and a long - position mindset should be adopted [3]. Copper - Market Review: Shanghai copper oscillated around the 78,000 - yuan mark [5]. - Industrial Logic: The tight situation of copper concentrates persists. The production of electrolytic copper has increased due to new smelter projects. The inventory of LME copper increased by over 10,000 tons, and there are concerns about the return of excess copper inventory from the US to the Asian market. The downstream start - up rate has increased, and the demand from the power and automotive sectors has offset the weak demand from the real estate construction sector [5]. - Strategy Recommendation: Be vigilant about the pullback pressure caused by the verification of demand, but expect the deep decline of copper prices to be limited. Consider buying on dips after pullbacks. In the long run, be confident in the upward trend of copper prices. The focus range for Shanghai copper is [77,000 - 79,000] yuan/ton, and for LME copper is [9600 - 9800] US dollars/ton [6]. Zinc - Market Review: Shanghai zinc stopped falling and rebounded, with narrow - range oscillation [8]. - Industrial Logic: The supply of zinc ore is expected to be loose in 2025, and the processing fees of zinc concentrates have continued to rebound. The domestic inventory has slightly increased, and the LME zinc inventory increased by 7.7% overnight. The start - up rate of galvanizing enterprises is affected by the weak steel demand [8]. - Strategy Recommendation: In the short term, zinc is under pressure to decline. In the long run, supply increases while demand weakens. Seize short - selling opportunities on rallies. The focus range for Shanghai zinc is [21,800 - 22,200] yuan/ton, and for LME zinc is [2680 - 2780] US dollars/ton [9]. Aluminum - Market Review: Aluminum prices were under pressure, and alumina prices declined [10]. - Industrial Logic: For electrolytic aluminum, the operating capacity remains high, the inventory has increased, and the demand is in the off - season. For alumina, the import of bauxite remains high, and some domestic enterprises have carried out maintenance and production suspension, but the overall supply - demand structure is expected to remain loose [11]. - Strategy Recommendation: Focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds for Shanghai aluminum, and pay attention to the change in aluminum ingot inventory. The main operating range is [20,000 - 20,800] yuan/ton. Alumina is expected to operate in a low - level range [11]. Nickel - Market Review: Nickel prices were under pressure to rebound, and stainless steel prices rebounded and then declined [12]. - Industrial Logic: For nickel, the overseas environment is uncertain, and the price of Philippine nickel ore may continue to weaken. The domestic supply - demand situation has improved limitedly, and the inventory has accumulated again. For stainless steel, the production reduction intensity has weakened, and the inventory pressure has reappeared in the off - season [13]. - Strategy Recommendation: Focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, and pay attention to inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [118,000 - 122,000] yuan/ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Review: The main contract LC2509 slightly reduced positions and closed higher, with shrinking trading volume [14]. - Industrial Logic: The supply and demand have both increased, but the total inventory has reached a new high and has been accumulating for 6 consecutive weeks. The supply has increased significantly, and the terminal demand has both positive and negative factors. The main contract is difficult to decline deeply but is also restricted by high inventory [15]. - Strategy Recommendation: It will operate at a high level in the short term, with the range of [65,500 - 67,500] yuan/ton [15].