6月社零报告专题：6月社零同增4.8%，国补品类增势良好

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the retail sales of consumer goods in June 2025 reached CNY 42,287 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, which is below the consensus expectation of 5.56% [5][10] - The report indicates that the online retail sector is growing rapidly, while offline retail remains stable, with online sales increasing by 8.5% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [5][15] - The report emphasizes the impact of national subsidy policies on retail categories, with essential and discretionary goods showing continued growth [5][27] Summary by Sections Overall Retail Sales - In Q2 2025, retail sales grew by 5.4% year-on-year, with June showing a growth of 4.8%. The total retail sales for the first half of 2025 reached CNY 245,458 billion, marking a 5.0% increase [5][10] - Urban retail sales outpaced rural sales for four consecutive months, with urban sales in June at CNY 36,559 billion, growing by 4.8% year-on-year [12][10] By Category - Retail sales of goods outperformed the restaurant sector, with June's total for restaurant services at CNY 4,708 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, while goods retail reached CNY 37,580 billion, growing by 5.3% [22][5] - The report notes that national subsidy policies are effectively driving growth in essential and discretionary categories, with June's year-on-year growth rates for essential and discretionary goods at 5.92% and 2.15%, respectively [27][29] Price Performance - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.1% year-on-year in June 2025, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 3.6%, leading to an expanded PPI-CPI gap of -3.7% [33][36] - Food prices decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, with non-food prices showing a slight increase [35][36] Employment Situation - The urban unemployment rate remained stable at 5.0% in June 2025, unchanged from the previous month [43][44] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the white liquor sector may see demand recovery due to expanding domestic demand policies, despite short-term weakness from a "ban on alcohol" [51] - It also recommends focusing on core leading companies in the cosmetics sector, which are expected to perform well due to strong domestic growth and increasing market share [51]