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铁矿石:力拓发运不及预期,矿价短期偏强运行
Hua Bao Qi Huo·2025-07-17 09:35

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - International macro uncertainty weakens and risk preference rises. Short - term domestic macro expectations strengthen, and the market trading focus may gradually shift to trading strong reality and strong expectations. With the decline in foreign ore shipments and short - term high - level decline in arrivals leading to inventory depletion, and demand remaining at a relatively high level, the short - term iron ore futures price is expected to fluctuate strongly in a range. Later, attention should be paid to whether hot metal production rebounds unexpectedly and policy increments from the Politburo meeting [3] - The price will fluctuate strongly in a range. The price range of the i2509 contract is 760 yuan/ton - 790 yuan/ton, and the price range of the outer - market FE08 contract is 99 - 105 US dollars/ton [3] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Contents Logic - Rio Tinto released its second - quarter report yesterday, with a year - on - year increase of 5.36% in production and a year - on - year decrease of 0.53% in sales. Its shipping completion rate is low, and the expectation of reaching the lower limit of the annual target remains unchanged, with the shipping volume expectation revised down compared to the beginning of the year. The market has gradually accepted Trump's TACO deal, the marginal impact of Sino - US tariffs has weakened, and with the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the market risk preference has become more positive, boosting the valuation of commodities. Domestic monetary and fiscal policies have taken effect in advance, and there are still strong expectations for incremental policies, which have a positive impact on iron ore prices [1] Supply - Recently, foreign ore shipments have entered a phased decline cycle. After the end - of - fiscal - year volume rush of Australian BHP and FMG mines, they entered the maintenance period in early July, while Brazilian shipments remained at a relatively medium - to - high level. Short - term arrivals are expected to decline from the high level, reducing the near - end supply pressure. However, the recent rebound of the outer - market price to 100 US dollars/ton may stimulate an increase in non - mainstream ore supply if the price remains high [1] Demand - The domestic daily average hot metal output has declined slightly for two consecutive weeks, with the current daily average hot metal output at 239.81 (a month - on - month decrease of 1.04). But the current profitability rate of steel mills is high, and the blast furnace profit is relatively good. Coupled with the full - scale deep losses of short - process steelmaking and the still - high cost - effectiveness of hot metal, the short - term demand for iron ore is expected to remain resilient, and the slight decline in demand has a weak impact on prices [1] Inventory - Due to the continuous rise in iron ore prices recently, steel mills have replenished their stocks to some extent, and their imported ore inventory has increased month - on - month. As the arrivals have continued to decline month - on - month, port inventories have decreased for two consecutive weeks. It is expected that the overall inventory will gradually accumulate slightly later, but the inventory accumulation pressure is weak [2]