Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis using tools like the golden ratio line, horizontal line, and moving average, the report predicts the likely trends of various futures contracts on July 17, 2025, including whether they will be in a strong - side or weak - side oscillation, along with their respective resistance and support levels [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market Outlook - Stock Index Futures: Expected to be in a strong - side oscillation on July 17. For example, IF2509 has resistance at 4000 and 4020 points and support at 3952 and 3940 points; IH2509 has resistance at 2750 and 2763 points and support at 2716 and 2703 points; IC2509 has resistance at 5965 and 6000 points and support at 5860 and 5829 points; IM2509 has resistance at 6360 and 6400 points and support at 6260 and 6216 points [2]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The ten - year T2509 and thirty - year TL2509 are likely to oscillate and consolidate. T2509 has resistance at 108.92 and 109.00 yuan and support at 108.74 and 108.55 yuan; TL2509 has resistance at 121.0 and 121.2 yuan and support at 120.6 and 120.4 yuan [2]. - Precious Metal Futures: Gold AU2510 and silver AG2510 are likely to oscillate and consolidate. AU2510 will accumulate strength to attack resistance at 781.8 and 786.8 yuan/gram with support at 773.8 and 771.8 yuan/gram; AG2510 has resistance at 9207 and 9267 yuan/kg and support at 9088 and 9061 yuan/kg [2][3]. - Base Metal Futures: Copper CU2508, aluminum AL2509, and zinc ZN2509 are likely to oscillate and consolidate. CU2508 has support at 77700 and 77500 yuan/ton and resistance at 78100 and 78400 yuan/ton; AL2509 has support at 20300 and 20230 yuan/ton and resistance at 20490 and 20600 yuan/ton; ZN2509 is likely to be in a strong - side oscillation, attacking resistance at 22100 and 22190 yuan/ton with support at 21950 and 21930 yuan/ton. Alumina AO2509 is likely to be in a weak - side oscillation, with support at 3046 and 3028 yuan/ton and resistance at 3138 and 3158 yuan/ton. Nickel NI2508 is likely to be in a weak - side oscillation, with support at 119100 and 118700 yuan/ton and resistance at 119900 and 120200 yuan/ton [3]. - Industrial and Energy Futures: Industrial silicon SI2509, polysilicon PS2508, and lithium carbonate LC2509 are likely to be in a strong - side oscillation. SI2509 will attack resistance at 8790 and 8880 yuan/ton with support at 8600 and 8520 yuan/ton; PS2508 will attack resistance at 43250 and 44600 yuan/ton with support at 42360 and 41760 yuan/ton; LC2509 will attack resistance at 67700 and 68400 yuan/ton with support at 65500 and 65000 yuan/ton. Crude oil SC2508 is likely to be in a weak - side oscillation, with support at 508 and 505 yuan/barrel and resistance at 523 and 528 yuan/barrel. Fuel oil FU2509 and PTA TA509 are likely to be in a weak - side oscillation. FU2509 will test support at 2824 and 2800 yuan/ton with resistance at 2883 and 2911 yuan/ton; TA509 will test support at 4664 and 4644 yuan/ton with resistance at 4728 and 4754 yuan/ton [3][4][6]. - Agricultural and Building Material Futures: Rebar RB2510, hot - rolled coil HC2510, iron ore I2509, coking coal JM2509, glass FG509, soda ash SA509, caustic soda SH509, PVC V2509, and soybean meal M2509 are likely to be in a strong - side oscillation. For example, RB2510 will attack resistance at 3138 and 3149 yuan/ton with support at 3104 and 3094 yuan/ton; HC2510 will attack resistance at 3299 and 3320 yuan/ton with support at 3253 and 3247 yuan/ton. Natural rubber RU2509 is likely to be in a strong - side oscillation, with resistance at 14570 and 14710 yuan/ton and support at 14450 and 14320 yuan/ton [4][6][7]. 2. Macro Information and Trading Tips - Domestic Macro News: The State Council held a meeting to study policies for strengthening the domestic cycle, heard reports on the new energy vehicle industry and budget audit rectification, and passed a draft amendment to a regulation on foreigners' entry and exit. The National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference emphasized expanding domestic demand. The Third China International Supply - Chain Promotion Expo opened, and the Ministry of Commerce proposed high - level opening - up and implemented a policy on tax credit for foreign investors' reinvestment. The Ministry of Public Security aimed to combat intellectual property crimes, and the State Administration for Market Regulation piloted the decentralization of administrative approval for national secondary standard substances. China and Australia signed a memorandum on the implementation and review of the free - trade agreement [8][9][10]. - International Macro News: Trump made statements about the Fed chair, tariff policies, and trade agreements. The US June PPI was flat month - on - month, and the core PPI also showed a small increase. Trump planned to issue an executive order to promote pension investment in the private market. The Fed's "Beige Book" showed a slight increase in economic activity with high uncertainty. The US launched a 301 investigation against Brazil, and Mexico opposed US tomato tariffs. The UK June CPI increased, raising concerns about the central bank's interest - rate policy [11][12][13]. 3. Commodity Futures - Related Information - International Futures Market: On July 16, international precious - metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold up 0.52% to 3354.20 dollars/ounce and COMEX silver up 0.04% to 38.13 dollars/ounce. International oil prices oscillated narrowly, with US crude up 0.18% to 66.64 dollars/barrel and Brent down 0.03% to 68.69 dollars/barrel. London base - metal futures mostly fell, showing an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [13]. - Exchange - Rate Information: On July 16, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed down 42 points at 7.1776, and the offshore RMB closed up 44 points at 7.1802. The US dollar index fell 0.35% to 98.29, and non - US currencies mostly rose [14][15].
股指期货将偏强震荡多晶硅期货将震荡偏强工业硅、碳酸锂、螺纹钢、铁矿石、焦煤、玻璃、纯碱、PVC、豆粕期货将偏强震荡氧化铝期货将偏弱震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-07-17 09:37