中辉期货黑色观点-20250717

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report - The steel market sentiment has slightly decreased, and it is expected to operate within a range [3]. - The fundamentals of iron ore have weakened, and its price may face pressure [7]. - The market sentiment for coke has slightly decreased, and it is expected to operate within a range [10]. - The sentiment for coking coal has slightly decreased, and it is expected to operate within a range [14]. - The supply - demand contradiction in ferroalloys is limited, and they are expected to operate within a range [18]. Summary by Variety Steel (including rebar and hot - rolled coil) - Rebar: The Urban Work Conference did not release stimulus signals, indicating the end of the real - estate incremental era, which was more bearish than expected. In terms of supply and demand, both production and apparent demand of rebar decreased month - on - month, and the total inventory slightly declined, showing obvious off - season characteristics. Although the molten iron output dropped below 2.4 million tons, the absolute level remained high. Currently, trading has shifted from industrial logic to macro - sentiment and policy - expectation logic, and it is expected to operate within the range of [3100, 3140] in the short term [1][4][5]. - Hot - rolled coil: Both the production and apparent demand of hot - rolled coil slightly decreased month - on - month, and the inventory changed little. The overall supply - demand was relatively balanced with limited fundamental contradictions. After the Urban Work Conference, the market sentiment declined, but later meetings such as the Politburo meeting may still provide stimulus. It is expected to operate within the range of [3260, 3300] in the short term [1][5]. Iron Ore - Fundamentally, on the demand side, the molten iron output is decreasing and is expected to continue to decline slowly. On the supply side, both arrivals and shipments have increased, and there will be more shipments later. Ports are reducing inventory, and steel mills are restocking for rigid demand. The overall supply - demand structure is moderately weak. As the Urban Conference did not meet expectations, attention should be paid to the introduction of supply - side reform policies at the industrial level. In the short term, the futures market may return to fundamental trading. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and lay out short positions in the medium term, with the price range of [770, 795] [1][8][9]. Coke - The first round of spot price increases has occurred, and the coking profit has slightly improved. The fundamentals of coke have generally changed little. The output of independent coking enterprises has recently declined, but the output of steel - mill coking enterprises remains high. The absolute level of molten iron output is high, ensuring the demand for raw materials. The total inventory decreased month - on - month, but the absolute level is still high. The market sentiment has slightly cooled down, and it is expected to operate within the range of [1490, 1520] [1][12][13]. Coking Coal - The domestic coking coal production has recently decreased, and the absolute level is close to that of the same period last year. Since July, some shut - down coal mines have gradually resumed production, and the supply is expected to increase later. The upstream inventory decreased month - on - month, and the spot trading has improved. The overall market sentiment has improved. The short - term macro - expectation has slightly cooled down, and it is expected to operate within the range of [890, 920] [1][16][17]. Ferrous Alloys (including manganese silicon and silicon iron) - Manganese silicon: Fundamentally, supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and the inventory pressure has not been significantly relieved. The manganese ore on the cost side temporarily supports the price. However, recently, the electricity - cost in many production areas has decreased, and the long - term quotes of some mines have slightly dropped, so there is still an expectation of cost - side loosening. Although the molten iron output is currently at a high level, the actual demand may be pressured to decline due to the off - season. In the short term, the market is mainly driven by sentiment. In the medium term, the price may be pressured to operate. Attention should be paid to the 6000 yuan/ton integer mark, with the price range of [5655, 5845] [1][20][21]. - Silicon iron: Fundamentally, both supply and demand are decreasing. After the electricity price in production areas was lowered, the cost line has further moved down. The current factory inventory level is still relatively high, and some factories still have plans to resume production. As the downstream consumption off - season has arrived, it is more difficult for factories to reduce inventory. In the short term, the market is mainly driven by sentiment, and the overall supply - demand contradiction is relatively limited. It is expected that the market will operate within the range of [5315, 5500] [1][20][21].