EIA周度报告点评-20250717

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is an EIA weekly data report with the summary that refined oil inventories have significantly increased and terminal demand data has cooled down [1] Group 2: Main Data - As of July 11, U.S. commercial crude oil total inventory was 422,162 thousand barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 385.9 thousand barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 55.2 thousand barrels. Cushing inventory increased by 21.3 thousand barrels, and strategic reserve inventory decreased by 30 thousand barrels [2][3] - Gasoline inventory increased by 339.9 thousand barrels, contrary to the estimated decrease of 100 thousand barrels. Distillate oil inventory increased by 417.3 thousand barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 20 thousand barrels [2] - U.S. crude oil production decreased by 10 thousand barrels per day to 13,375 thousand barrels per day; net imports decreased by 395 thousand barrels per day to 2,861 thousand barrels per day; processing volume decreased by 157 thousand barrels per day to 16,849 thousand barrels per day [3] - The four - week smoothed U.S. crude oil terminal apparent demand decreased by 301.75 thousand barrels per day to 20,261.75 thousand barrels per day; gasoline apparent demand decreased by 202.5 thousand barrels per day to 8,994 thousand barrels per day; distillate oil apparent demand decreased by 80.75 thousand barrels per day to 3,732 thousand barrels per day; jet fuel apparent demand decreased by 46.75 thousand barrels per day to 1,748 thousand barrels per day [3] Group 3: Report Comments - Last week, U.S. commercial crude oil decreased more than expected. The weekly refinery operating rate decreased by 0.8% to 93.9% but remained at a high level. The continuous recovery of U.S. weekly crude oil exports from the previous low also contributed to the inventory decline [4] - In terms of refined oil, this week's data was disappointing. The apparent demand for gasoline and distillate oil both decreased, with the four - week smoothed gasoline demand dropping by over 200 thousand barrels per day. During the traditional consumption peak season after July 4th, the data was unexpectedly poor, indicating that refueling at gas stations did not increase the stocking demand from refineries. The gasoline demand curve has significantly deviated from the same period last year and is at a low level. With refineries operating at high rates, the significant increase in refined oil inventories will gradually affect upstream operations through a decline in cracking margins [6] Group 4: Market Impact and Outlook - This week's EIA report was relatively bearish. Although the most important commercial crude oil inventory decreased more than expected, the terminal data was lackluster, especially the weak gasoline demand during the traditional driving peak season. After the report was released, oil prices briefly declined but then stabilized and rebounded, remaining in a narrow - range oscillation. Despite this week's poor data, the Northern Hemisphere is still in the consumption peak season, and the gasoline demand data in the previous three weeks was good. The market cannot form a one - sided downward trend based on a single week's poor high - frequency data, which requires the accumulation of more bearish factors [8]