Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Bearish [1] - LPG: Take profit on short positions [1] - L: Continue short positions [1] - PP: Continue short positions [1] - PVC: Sideways [1] - PX: Bearish [1] - PTA/PR: Bearish on rebounds [1] - Ethylene glycol: Bearish [1] - Glass: Buy on pullbacks [2] - Soda ash: Narrow - range sideways [2] - Caustic soda: Slowdown in upward trend [2] - Methanol: Bearish on rebounds [2] - Urea: Short - term rebound in a bear market [2] - Asphalt: Bearish [2] - Propylene: Weak sideways [2] Core Views - The supply pressure of the oil market is gradually rising, and the oil price is weak. The supply - demand pattern of most chemical products is weak, with cost support weakening and inventory accumulation in some cases. Some products are affected by policy expectations and new capacity releases [1][2][4] Summary by Variety Crude oil - Market situation: Overnight international oil prices continued to decline. WTI dropped 2.00%, Brent dropped 0.28%, and SC dropped 0.45% [3] - Basic logic: The oil market shows a situation of weak expectations and strong reality. Although it is in the consumption peak season, the pressure brought by OPEC's production increase is gradually released, and the oil price center still has room to decline. Russia's June seaborne oil product exports decreased by 3.4% to 8.98 million tons. China's June crude oil imports were 49.888 million tons, with a cumulative increase of 1.4% from January to June. The EIA data shows that as of the week of July 11, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.9 million barrels [4] - Strategy recommendation: In the medium - to - long term, due to factors such as the tariff war, the impact of new energy, and OPEC +'s expansion cycle, the supply of crude oil will be in excess, and the oil price is expected to fluctuate between 60 - 70 US dollars per barrel. In the short term, it is recommended to lightly short and buy call options for protection. Focus on SC [505 - 525] [5] LPG - Market situation: On July 16, the PG main contract closed at 4108 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.25%. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China decreased to varying degrees [7] - Basic logic: With the production increase of OPEC +, the supply pressure of LPG is increasing. Two PDH plants are planned to restart at the end of the month, providing some support. As of July 11, the LPG commodity volume decreased, and the PDH, MTBE, and alkylation oil operating rates changed. Refinery and port inventories increased [8] - Strategy recommendation: After the release of geopolitical risks, from the perspective of supply - demand, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the center is expected to continue to move down. Currently, the ratio of LPG to crude oil is high, so it is recommended to take profit on previous short positions. Focus on PG [4000 - 4100] [9] L - Market situation: Both futures and spot prices declined. The North China basis was - 64 (down 23 compared to the previous period) [11] - Basic logic: The supply - demand pattern is weak, social inventories have increased for three consecutive weeks, the 9 - 1 spread has turned negative, and the basis is at a low level. Although recent device maintenance has alleviated supply pressure marginally, 2.05 million tons of new devices are planned to be put into production from July to August, with a weak medium - to - long - term outlook. The agricultural film operating rate has increased month - on - month [12] - Strategy recommendation: Hold short positions. Focus on L [7150 - 7300] [12] PP - Market situation: The East China basis was 80 (down 14 compared to the previous period). The market is expected to continue to be weak [15] - Basic logic: Cost support is weakening, and recent warehouse receipts have been increasing. Enterprises and traders' inventories have decreased this week, but there are more device restart plans in the future. 2 million tons of new capacity are planned to be added in the third quarter, with long - term supply pressure. From January to May, exports increased by 22% year - on - year, and export profits are positive [16] - Strategy recommendation: Hold short positions. Focus on PP [6950 - 7100] [16] PVC - Market situation: The Changzhou basis was - 94 (up 31 compared to the previous period). The spot price is expected to be weakly sideways [19] - Basic logic: Short - term policy expectations have weakened, and trading has returned to the weak fundamental situation. Social inventories have increased for three consecutive weeks, and new capacity is being released. Both domestic and foreign demand are in the off - season. In July, the supply - demand pattern tends to accumulate inventory. However, due to the expected Politburo meeting at the end of the month and the stabilization of coal prices, there is support at the bottom [20] - Strategy recommendation: Short - term long and long - term short. Focus on V [4900 - 5100] [20] PX - Market situation: On July 11, the spot price in East China was 7120 yuan/ton (unchanged compared to the previous period), and the PX09 contract closed at 6694 (- 88) yuan/ton [22] - Basic logic: Domestic devices have reduced their loads, while overseas devices are operating at a relatively high load. The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and PX inventories are still relatively high. The PXN spread is 256.7 (+ 5.3) US dollars/ton [23] - Strategy recommendation: Focus on shorting opportunities on rallies. Focus on PX [6650 - 6750] [23] PTA - Market situation: On July 11, the PTA price in East China was 4715 (- 20) yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4700 (- 42) yuan/ton [24] - Basic logic: The processing fee is relatively high, and the supply is abundant. Some devices are under maintenance or shut down. Downstream polyester production cuts are ongoing, and the terminal weaving operating rate is declining. Inventory is being depleted, and the basis is weakening [25] - Strategy recommendation: Focus on shorting opportunities on rallies. Focus on TA [4650 - 4710] [26] MEG - Market situation: On July 11, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4383 (- 3) yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4305 (- 20) yuan/ton [27] - Basic logic: The number of domestic and overseas device overhauls is less than restarts, and the expected arrival volume is increasing. The demand is expected to weaken, and the polyester operating rate is declining. The social inventory has stopped falling, and the port inventory is low [28] - Strategy recommendation: Focus on shorting opportunities on rallies. Focus on EG [4300 - 4360] [29] Glass - Market situation: Spot market quotes were lowered, the futures price corrected, the basis fluctuated narrowly, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [32] - Basic logic: At the macro level, policies on backward capacity exit and coal - fired production line technological transformation are expected to improve the supply - demand pattern. In the short term, due to high - temperature conditions, the market is restricted. The in - production capacity of glass fluctuates slightly at a low level, production has increased slightly, and inventories have continued to decline [32] - Strategy recommendation: Focus on FG [1060 - 1090] [32] Soda ash - Market situation: The spot price of heavy soda ash was lowered, the futures price closed down, the main - contract basis widened, the number of warehouse receipts decreased, and the number of valid forecasts remained unchanged [34] - Basic logic: Although the high - level meeting mentioned supply - side capacity reduction, the impact of policy speculation has weakened, and soda ash manufacturers have accumulated inventories again. The supply is at a high level, and inventory removal is difficult. Downstream support is okay, but terminal consumption is weak [35] - Strategy recommendation: Treat it with a wide - range sideways thinking. Focus on SA [1200 - 1230] [2] Caustic soda - Market situation: The spot price of caustic soda was partially lowered, the futures price dropped from a high level, the basis strengthened, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [37] - Basic logic: The supply side has a summer maintenance season inventory - removal expectation, and the new capacity is expected to be put into production. The supply pressure may be relieved in the short term. The downstream alumina operating rate has increased, but non - aluminum demand is weak. The cost support has shifted downwards, and the inventory has decreased [38] - Strategy recommendation: Hold long positions cautiously. Focus on SH [2460 - 2510] [38] Methanol - Market situation: On July 11, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2381 (- 23) yuan/ton, and the main 09 contract closed at 2370 (- 28) yuan/ton [39] - Basic logic: Domestic methanol device overhauls are ongoing, but the comprehensive operating load remains relatively high. Overseas devices have recovered to the same - period high. The demand has a negative feedback, and the coastal MTO external - procurement device load has continued to decline. Social inventories are accumulating [2] - Strategy recommendation: Short on rallies. Focus on MA [2345 - 2375] [2] Urea - Market situation: The supply is under pressure, with a daily output of nearly 200,000 tons. The industrial demand is weak, and the agricultural fertilizer demand has weakened month - on - month, but the fertilizer export growth rate is fast [2] - Basic logic: The cost support still exists, and the basis is strong. The domestic urea fundamentals are still relatively loose, and there is short - term speculation on urea exports [2] - Strategy recommendation: Lightly go long. Focus on UR [1725 - 1755] [2] Asphalt - Market situation: The cost - side oil price has declined, and the raw material supply is sufficient. The supply has decreased slightly, and inventories are accumulating [2] - Basic logic: The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the current cracking spread is at a high level, with high valuation [2] - Strategy recommendation: Lightly short. Focus on BU [3550 - 3650] [2] Propylene - Market situation: The cost - side prices of crude oil and propane have continued to fall, and the cost support has weakened [2] - Basic logic: The supply - demand pattern is weak, some PP devices are shut down for maintenance, and new capacity in East China and Shandong is about to be put into production, putting pressure on the supply [2] - Strategy recommendation: Short on rallies. Focus on propylene in the range of [6200 - 6350] [2]
中辉期货能化观点-20250717
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-07-17 09:50