中国期货每日简报-20250717

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On July 16, financial futures showed mixed performance; commodity futures had narrowed fluctuations, with agricultural product futures rising and energy & chemical futures falling [2][11][14]. - The top three gainers were poly-silicon, SCFIS(Europe), and cotton, while the top three decliners were sodium hydroxide, live hog, and ferrosilicon [12][13][14]. - The European line is expected to fluctuate with a bullish bias, iron ore prices are likely to be prone to rise rather than fall before market sentiment turns weak, and glass prices are expected to maintain a volatile view [25][30][36]. Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On July 16, financial futures had a mixed performance; commodity futures saw narrowed fluctuations, with agricultural product futures rising and energy and chemical futures falling [11][14]. - The top three gainers were poly-silicon (up 1.5% with a 2.8% month-on-month increase in positions), SCFIS(Europe) (up 1.4% with an 8.3% month-on-month increase in positions), and cotton (up 1.2% with a 4.0% month-on-month increase in positions) [12][14]. - The top three decliners were sodium hydroxide (down 2.1% with a 7.1% month-on-month increase in positions), live hog (down 1.9% with a 1.7% month-on-month increase in positions), and ferrosilicon (down 1.7% with a 0.6% month-on-month decrease in positions) [13][14]. 1.2 Daily Rise 1.2.1 SCFIS(Europe) - On July 16, SCFIS(Europe) increased by 1.4% to 1598.1 points [18][24]. - In June, export data remained resilient. China's exports in US dollars increased by 5.8% year-on-year, exports to the US fell by 16.1% with a significantly narrowed decline, and exports to the EU rose by 7.6% year-on-year [19][24]. - Spot freight rates remain resilient, shipping companies have high load rates, and there is no inflection point in spot freight rates yet. Shipping companies may announce price increases in August, and all contracts are performing relatively strongly [20][24][25]. 1.2.2 Iron Ore - On July 16, iron ore increased by 1.0% to 773 yuan/ton [28][30][31]. - Iron ore demand remains high, and fundamental bearish drivers are limited. Prices are expected to be prone to rise rather than fall before market sentiment turns weak, but short-term upward movement is limited, and prices will mainly fluctuate [28][30]. - Overseas mine shipments slightly decreased, port arrivals rebounded, steel enterprises' profits slightly improved, and molten iron output decreased but remained high year-on-year. Port inventory slightly decreased due to concentrated arrivals, and overall supply-demand contradictions are not prominent [29][30]. 1.3 Daily Drop 1.3.1 Glass - On July 16, glass decreased by 1.1% to 1070 yuan/ton [32][36]. - Actual demand is weak, but policy expectations are strong. In the short term, wait and see the pace and intensity of policy introduction. If policies exceed expectations, downstream expectations may improve and trigger a wave of stockpiling-driven increases. In the medium to long term, market-oriented capacity reduction is still needed, and prices will maintain a volatile view [32][36]. - Domestic macro urban renewal meetings have concluded with no obvious positive factors, off-season demand is falling, deep processing orders have decreased month-on-month, and raw sheet inventory days have rebounded month-on-month. There are still 2 production lines to produce glass, and daily output is on an upward trajectory [33][36]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - On July 15, China and Australia signed a Memorandum of Understanding on Implementing and Reviewing the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement [38][39]. - The Symposium on Research and Consultation for Comprehensively Expanding Domestic Demand was held in Beijing on July 16 [38][39]. - Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with Iranian Foreign Minister in Tianjin on July 16 [39]. 2.2 Industry News - The Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong released the "2024 Survey on Asset and Wealth Management Activities". In 2024, the total value of assets under management soared by 13% year-on-year, and the net capital inflow surged by 81%. By the end of 2024, the total value of assets under management of Hong Kong's asset and wealth management business rose to 35.1 trillion yuan (4.53 trillion US dollars) [40].