能源化策略：原油等待欧美累库，化?的压?逐步增加

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests an overall view of "oscillating weakly" for the energy and chemical industry, with specific varieties having different trends such as oscillation, oscillation weakly, oscillation strongly, etc. [1][3][4] Core Viewpoints - Crude oil prices have fallen for three consecutive days, and the market is closely watching whether US inventories will accumulate effectively. The supply pressure of the chemical industry is increasing, and the demand has shown weakness since June, with an increasing possibility of the industry gradually weakening. [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Trends of Crude Oil and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Supply pressure persists, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances. In the context of a relatively certain inventory accumulation expectation, oil prices are expected to be under pressure and oscillate weakly after the weakening of geopolitical disturbances. [8] - Chemicals: Supply has substantially increased, while demand has shown weakness since June. The probability of the chemical industry gradually weakening is increasing. For example, the supply pressure of olefins will suppress industrial profits, and the polyester chain may see a decline in direct demand for raw materials. [2] 2. Analysis of Each Variety - LPG: The support from the cost side is weakening, the fundamental pattern of looseness remains unchanged, and the PG futures may oscillate weakly. [3][13] - Asphalt: The valuation of asphalt futures prices is gradually entering a severely over - estimated stage. [8][9] - High - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The downward pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil futures prices is relatively large. [3][9][10] - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: It follows the crude oil to oscillate and weaken. [3][13] - Methanol: The domestic operating load is low, and methanol oscillates. [3][22][23] - Urea: The hype sentiment has slowed down, and the futures may return to the fundamentals, with short - term pressure on urea. [3][23][24] - Ethylene Glycol: The resumption of device production is less than expected, and ethylene glycol will continue the low - inventory pattern. [3][17][18] - PX: The US sanctions against Russia are less than expected, and PX oscillates and consolidates. [15] - PTA: The driving force is not obvious, and PTA consolidates. [15] - Short - Fiber: It fluctuates with raw materials, and the basis remains stable. [18][20] - Bottle Chip: The basis weakens slightly, and the absolute value fluctuates with raw materials. [20][21] - PP: As oil prices fall, PP oscillates. [3][26] - Plastic: As oil prices decline, plastic oscillates and weakens. [3][25] - Pure Benzene: Due to the lack of confidence of styrene bulls and the decline of crude oil, pure benzene falls back. [15] - Styrene: The risk of cornering declines, and styrene falls. [15][16][17] - PVC: The sentiment cools down in stages, and PVC runs weakly. [3][28] - Caustic Soda: The spot price has reached the peak, and caustic soda oscillates. [3][28][29] 3. Variety Data Monitoring - Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - Inter - period Spread: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes. For example, Brent's M1 - M2 spread is 0.9 with a change of - 0.03, and PX's 1 - 5 month spread is 48 with a change of 22. [30] - Basis and Warehouse Receipts: Each variety has corresponding basis and warehouse receipt data. For example, the basis of asphalt is 192 with a change of - 1, and the number of warehouse receipts is 82300. [31] - Inter - variety Spread: There are also specific values and changes for inter - variety spreads. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 294 with a change of 47. [32] - Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring: It involves the monitoring of basis and spreads of various chemical varieties such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but specific data details are not fully presented in the text. [33][45][57]