光大期货能化商品日报-20250717

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the energy and chemical products in the report are rated as "oscillating" [1][2][4] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude Oil: On Wednesday, oil prices fell slightly. EIA data showed an increase in gasoline and distillate inventories and a decrease in crude oil inventories. Refinery开工率 was high, but the increase in product inventories disappointed the market. With the ongoing tariff war and lower - than - expected demand, prices are in a weak oscillation [1]. - Fuel Oil: The high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil markets are mainly oscillating following the cost - end crude oil. The LU - FU spread has widened, but there is medium - term supply pressure for low - sulfur fuel oil, and short positions can be considered at high prices [2]. - Asphalt: The impact of the adjustment of fuel oil and diluted asphalt consumption tax deduction policies is not yet apparent. Short - term supply will decrease, and the market will oscillate narrowly following crude oil [2]. - Polyester: Polyester prices are expected to oscillate weakly. The production and sales of polyester yarn are weak, and some devices are starting up or shutting down. The demand - side inventory pressure is significant, and some products are in a loss state [2][4]. - Rubber: Rubber prices are expected to oscillate weakly. The export volume of Cambodian latex decreased in the first half of 2025. The domestic natural rubber inventory increased slightly, and the production increase is being realized [4]. - Methanol: The load of Iranian devices has recovered, and the arrival volume has increased. Downstream profits have improved, and prices have returned to an oscillating trend [5]. - Polyolefins: The supply of polyolefins has limited changes, demand is at the bottom, and prices are expected to fluctuate narrowly [5]. - Polyvinyl Chloride: The enterprise's operating rate has decreased, demand has not improved significantly, and the upward rebound space is limited [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Crude Oil: WTI 8 - month contract closed at $66.38/barrel, down $0.14 or 0.21%. Brent 9 - month contract closed at $68.52/barrel, down $0.19 or 0.28%. SC2508 closed at 517.20 yuan/barrel. Gasoline and distillate inventories increased, while crude oil inventories decreased. The market was disappointed with demand, and prices oscillated weakly [1]. - Fuel Oil: The main contract FU2509 of high - sulfur fuel oil rose 0.45% to 2880 yuan/ton, and the main contract LU2509 of low - sulfur fuel oil fell 0.47% to 3630 yuan/ton. The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil weakened slightly, and the high - sulfur market remained stable. The market oscillated following crude oil, and short positions can be considered for the LU - FU spread [2]. - Asphalt: The main contract BU2509 of asphalt fell 0.22% to 3623 yuan/ton. The supply will decrease in the short term, and the market will oscillate following crude oil [2]. - Polyester: TA509 closed at 4706 yuan/ton, up 0.21%. EG2509 closed at 4351 yuan/ton, up 0.67%. The production and sales of polyester yarn were weak, and prices oscillated weakly [2][4]. - Rubber: The main contract RU2509 of natural rubber rose 105 yuan/ton to 14500 yuan/ton, and the main contract of NR rose 110 yuan/ton to 12490 yuan/ton. The export volume of Cambodian latex decreased, and domestic inventory increased slightly. Rubber prices oscillated weakly [4]. - Methanol: The spot price in Taicang was 2382 yuan/ton. Iranian device load recovered, and prices oscillated [5]. - Polyolefins: The mainstream price of East China drawing was 7020 - 7160 yuan/ton. Supply changes were limited, and prices oscillated narrowly [5]. - Polyvinyl Chloride: The market prices in East, North, and South China decreased. The enterprise's operating rate decreased, and the upward rebound space was limited [5][6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price data of various energy and chemical products on July 16, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, and the position of the latest basis rate in historical data [7]. 3.3 Market News - EIA data showed that last week, US gasoline inventories increased by 3.4 million barrels, distillate inventories increased by 4.2 million barrels, and crude oil inventories decreased by 3.9 million barrels to 422.2 million barrels [9]. - Refineries were operating at a high rate, but the increase in product inventories disappointed the market. After the July 4th holiday, gasoline demand decreased, and the supply of gasoline products decreased by 670,000 barrels per day to 8.5 million barrels per day [9]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - Main Contract Prices: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [11][13][15] - Main Contract Basis: The report shows the basis charts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [30][34][36] - Inter - period Contract Spreads: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of energy and chemical products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [44][46][49] - Inter - product Spreads: The report shows the spread and ratio charts between different energy and chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [61][63][65] - Production Profits: The report presents the production profit charts of some energy and chemical products, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol and PP [68][70][73] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - Zhong Meiyan: Assistant Director of the Research Institute and Director of Energy and Chemicals, with over ten years of experience in futures derivatives market research [75]. - Du Bingqin: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with in - depth research on the energy industry chain [76]. - Di Yilin: Analyst for natural rubber and polyester, good at data analysis [77]. - Peng Haibo: Analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC, with experience in combining financial theory and industrial operations [78]