氛围偏乐观，煤焦震荡上行

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - On July 17, the coke main contract rallied at the end of the session, continuing its strong performance. The spot price of coking coal increased, leading to higher losses for coke enterprises and stronger cost support, which raised the expectation of coke price hikes. The futures market maintained a pattern of both supply and demand decline, but strong expectations dominated the market. Affected by multiple positive news, the coke main contract is expected to continue its upward trend in the short term [5][31]. - On July 17, the coking coal main contract closed at 918.5 points, up 1.55% intraday. Although the short - term fundamentals of coking coal have not improved significantly, positive news has improved market sentiment. With strong expectations leading the market, coking coal futures are expected to remain strong in the short term [6][32]. Summary by Directory Industry News - In June 2025, China's raw coal output was 421.074 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.0%. From January to June, the cumulative output was 2.404559 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. From January to June, the cumulative raw coal output in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi increased by 10.1%, 0.7%, and 3.3% year - on - year respectively [8]. - On July 17, the price of coking coal in Linfen Anze market was strong. The highest transaction price of low - sulfur main coking clean coal was 1320 yuan/ton, and local coal enterprises generally quoted 1300 - 1320 yuan/ton [9]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port, quasi - first - grade flat price) | 1220 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 0.00% | - 27.81% | - 40.20% | | Coke (Qingdao Port, quasi - first - grade ex - warehouse price) | 1270 yuan/ton | 3.25% | 9.48% | - 21.60% | - 37.44% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port, Mongolian coal) | 940 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 8.67% | - 20.34% | - 39.74% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Australian coal) | 1270 yuan/ton | 2.42% | 4.96% | - 14.77% | - 39.23% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Shanxi coal) | 1310 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 4.80% | - 14.38% | - 36.71% | [10] Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Position Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1519.0 | 1.00 | 1519.5 | 1485.0 | 23460 | 1519 | 44754 | - 534 | | Coking Coal | | 918.5 | 1.55 | 919.0 | 890.0 | 992915 | 17586 | 551465 | - 10542 | [14] Related Charts - The report provides charts on coke inventory (including 230 independent coking plants, ports, 247 steel mills' coking plants, and total coke inventory), coking coal inventory (including mine mouth, ports, 247 sample steel mills, and all - sample independent coking plants), as well as other charts such as Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement volume, domestic steel mill production, coal washing plant production, and coking plant operation [15][19][25]. Market Outlook - Coke is expected to continue its upward trend in the short term due to positive news and strong expectations. It is necessary to closely monitor domestic and foreign policies [5][31]. - Coking coal futures are expected to remain strong in the short term, with strong expectations leading the market. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to relevant policy dynamics [6][32].