瑞达期货铁矿石产业链日报-20250717

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish view on the iron ore industry, suggesting that the price of iron ore will continue to be strongly supported [2]. 2. Core View of the Report - Due to positive macro - level expectations and the continued support of molten iron demand, the iron ore price is expected to remain strong. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2509 contract shows a golden cross at a high level, with the red bar expanding. It is recommended to conduct short - term bullish trading while paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract is 785.50 yuan/ton, up 12.50 yuan; the position volume is 703,244 hands, up 12,867 hands. The I 9 - 1 contract spread is 33 yuan/ton, up 1.50 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract is - 6,516 hands, down 1,368 hands. The Dalian Commodity Exchange warehouse receipt is 3,000.00 hands, unchanged. The Singapore iron ore main contract is quoted at 100.75 US dollars/ton at 15:00, up 0.81 US dollars [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port is 835 yuan/dry ton, up 9 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fines is 808 yuan/dry ton, up 9 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fines at Jingtang Port is 714 yuan/dry ton, up 11 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) is 22 yuan, down 4 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) is 99.10 US dollars/ton, up 0.95 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port is 3.36, down 0.04. The estimated import cost is 815 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [2]. 3.3 Industrial Situation - The weekly shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil is 2,987.10 million tons, down 7.80 million tons; the weekly arrival volume at 47 ports in China is 2,883.20 million tons, up 347.70 million tons. The weekly inventory at 47 ports is 14,346.89 million tons, down 139.01 million tons; the weekly inventory of sample steel mills is 8,979.64 million tons, up 61.07 million tons. The monthly import volume of iron ore is 10,594.80 million tons, up 781.80 million tons. The available days of iron ore are 21 days, up 3 days. The daily output of 266 mines is 39.68 million tons, down 0.72 million tons; the operating rate of 266 mines is 62.83%, down 1.57%. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines is 50.72 million tons, down 1.59 million tons. The BDI index is 1,906.00, up 40.00. The freight rate of iron ore from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao is 21.01 US dollars/ton, up 0.50 US dollars; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao is 8.47 US dollars/ton, up 0.29 US dollars [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 83.13%, down 0.31%; the weekly blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 89.87%, down 0.40%. The monthly domestic crude steel output is 8,318 million tons, down 336 million tons [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 15.99%, up 0.43%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 15.82%, up 0.39%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 19.31%, up 0.25%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 19.86%, up 1.68% [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From July 7th to July 13th, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1,393.0 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 123.8 million tons, and the current inventory is at a relatively high level since the beginning of the year. According to Mysteel statistics, the total inventory of imported sinter powder of 114 steel mills under the new caliber is 2,718.82 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 95.92 million tons. The total daily consumption of imported sinter powder is 112.15 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.27 million tons. The inventory - to - consumption ratio is 24.24, a week - on - week decrease of 0.80 [2].