瑞达期货烧碱产业日报-20250717

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - SH2509 shows a volatile and slightly upward trend, closing at 2484 yuan/ton. The supply side has seen the return of previously减产 and shutdown facilities, with the caustic soda capacity utilization rate increasing by 2.2% to 82.6%. On the demand side, last week the alumina operating rate increased by 1.72% to 83.28%, and the average alumina profit is 300.3 yuan/ton. This week, the viscose staple fiber operating rate increased by 6.75% to 84.55%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate remained stable at 58.9%. In terms of inventory, this week the liquid caustic soda factory inventory increased by 2.56% to 38.39 tons, with little inventory pressure. The planned maintenance capacity of caustic soda in July has decreased. Recently, the downstream operating rate of liquid chlorine has increased, and the inverted price of liquid chlorine in Shandong has been alleviated, which has repaired the chlor-alkali profit, opening up the room for the increase of the caustic soda operating rate. The non-aluminum off-season demand is weak, and the downstream mainly purchases on a rigid basis. In the short term, SH2509 is expected to show a volatile trend, and the daily K-line should pay attention to the support around 2420 and the pressure around 2550 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main closing price of caustic soda is 2484 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 18; the futures holding volume is 247,813 lots, with a month-on-month decrease of 11,994; the net holding volume of the top 20 futures is -4,279 lots, with a month-on-month increase of 8,873; the futures trading volume is 489,252 lots, with a month-on-month decrease of 272,960. The closing price of the January contract is 2471 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 20; the closing price of the May contract is 2532 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 19 [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 840 yuan/ton, with no change; in Jiangsu, it is 910 yuan/ton, with no change. The converted price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 2625 yuan/ton, with no change; the basis is 159 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 46 [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 210 yuan/ton, with no change; in the Northwest, it is 220 yuan/ton, with no change. The price of steam coal is 636 yuan/ton, with no change [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is -350 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month decrease of 50; in Jiangsu, it is -75 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month decrease of 25.5 [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 12,940 yuan/ton, with no change; the spot price of alumina is 3150 yuan/ton, with no change [3]. 3.6 Industry News - From July 11th to 17th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 82.7%, a month-on-month increase of 2.3%. As of July 17th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 383,900 tons (wet tons), a month-on-month increase of 2.56% and a year-on-year increase of 1.78% [3].