Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-17 11:25Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint PVC price is under pressure due to weak supply - demand situation after the digestion of previous macro - positive factors. V2509 is expected to pay attention to the support around 4870 yuan/ton on the daily K - line [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 4955 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan; the trading volume is 777,706 lots, down 41,330 lots; the open interest is 966,325 lots, down 16,216 lots [3]. - The long position of the top 20 futures holders is 790,748 lots, down 4,809 lots; the short position is 806,539 lots, down 8,301 lots; the net long position is - 15,791 lots, up 3,492 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5025 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 4855.38 yuan/ton, down 13.08 yuan [3]. - In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4960 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; the price of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 4863.75 yuan/ton, down 42.5 yuan [3]. - The CIF price of PVC in China is 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia is 660 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe is 750 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. - The basis of PVC is - 94 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2650 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China is 2621.67 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China is 2388 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 350 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [3]. - The CFR middle price of VCM in the Far East is 503 US dollars/ton, down 21 US dollars; in Southeast Asia is 548 US dollars/ton, down 16 US dollars [3]. - The CFR middle price of EDC in the Far East is 211 US dollars/ton, up 27 US dollars; in Southeast Asia is 219 US dollars/ton, up 31 US dollars [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 76.97%, down 0.47 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 79.21%, down 1.59 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 71.02%, up 2.48 percentage points [3]. - The total social inventory of PVC is 39.27 tons, up 1.96 tons; the inventory in East China is 34.98 tons, up 1.95 tons; the inventory in South China is 4.29 tons, up 0.01 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index is 93.72, down 0.14 [3]. - The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 23,183.61 million square meters, up 5,347.77 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate construction area is 625,019.54 million square meters, up 4,704.49 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate development investment is 19154.81 billion yuan, up 4281.68 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 15.18%, up 0.06 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 14.89%, unchanged [3]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and call options of PVC is 19.73%, down 0.95 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - On July 17, the spot exchange price of PVCSG5 in Changzhou remained stable at 4810 - 4890 yuan/ton [3]. - From July 5th to 11th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 76.97%, down 0.47 percentage points from the previous period [3]. - As of July 17, the large - sample statistical social inventory of PVC increased by 5.42% to 65.73 tons month - on - month, and decreased by 31.15% year - on - year [3]. 3.8 Supply - Demand and Cost Analysis - Supply: Last week, PVC capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.47% to 76.97%. In July, domestic PVC plants are under centralized maintenance. Yidongdongxing's 300,000 - ton plant is planned to stop for maintenance this week, and some previously shut - down plants will restart, with the capacity utilization rate expected to rise month - on - month. The trial operation of new plants of Bohua and Wanhua will increase the medium - and long - term supply pressure on the industry [3]. - Demand: It is the off - season for domestic downstream demand, and the demand in the Indian market is suppressed by the rainy season. The Indian BIS certification is postponed to mid - December, and the anti - dumping policy may be implemented this month [3]. - Cost: There is still uncertainty about calcium carbide production restrictions in Inner Mongolia. Due to the lifting of the ban on US ethane exports to China, domestic ethylene supply tends to be loose, and the cost of ethylene - based PVC may continue to decline in the short term [3].