LC2507交割分析

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - As of July 14, 2025, the registered warehouse receipts volume was 11,204 tons. The total number of warehouse receipts participating in the delivery of the LC2507 contract was 18,761 tons, 2.6 times the delivery volume of LC2506. Among them, the volume of rolling delivery warehouse receipts was 13,884 tons, accounting for 74%, and the volume of transfer of futures to cash was 3,357 tons, accounting for 18% [4]. - In late June 2025, there was an opportunity for a "buy spot - sell 07" trade. The spread between the 07 - 08 contracts generally showed a positive spread trend, possibly related to the continuous reduction of warehouse receipts [4]. - The futures market is relatively strong, causing the basis to weaken. Those with the ability to register warehouse receipts can appropriately participate in the "buy spot - sell 09" combination, and upstream hedgers can still participate in selling hedges at high prices. If the warehouse receipts do not increase significantly near the delivery date, there is a risk of a squeeze in the 08 and subsequent contracts. The "buy 08/09 - sell 11" positive spread combination can be held, and continuous attention should be paid to changes in warehouse receipts and timely profit - taking [4]. - Since May, lithium carbonate warehouse receipts have been decreasing, and the enthusiasm for registering new warehouse receipts is low. With the mandatory cancellation of warehouse receipts at the end of July, there is a high possibility of insufficient delivery warehouse receipts for the 08 and subsequent contracts [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Contract Delivery Information - As of July 14, 2025, the registered warehouse receipts volume was 11,204 tons. The total number of warehouse receipts participating in the delivery of the LC2507 contract was 18,761 tons, 2.6 times the delivery volume of LC2506. Delivery matching was mainly concentrated at the beginning of the month. Rolling delivery warehouse receipts volume was 13,884 tons (74%), one - time centralized delivery was 1,520 tons (8%), and transfer of futures to cash was 3,357 tons (18%) [7]. - The report lists the delivery volumes of various buyer and seller members. For example, among buyers, Guotai Junan Futures had a delivery volume of 6,025 tons, and among sellers, CITIC Futures had a delivery volume of 3,284 tons [8]. 3.2 Futures Warehouse Receipt Distribution - Since May, lithium carbonate warehouse receipts have been decreasing, and low prices have not attracted new warehouse receipts registration. With the mandatory cancellation of warehouse receipts at the end of July, if we assume that warehouse receipts registered after June 5 meet the conditions, only 2,028 tons of new warehouse receipts were registered from June 5 to July 16. There is a high possibility of insufficient delivery warehouse receipts for the 08 and subsequent contracts [12]. - The report details the warehouse receipt distribution in different regions and specific warehouses and factories, such as the warehouse receipts in warehouses like COSCO Shipping Zhenjiang and factories like Shengxin Lithium Energy (Suining) [12]. 3.3 Review of Basis and Inter - period Opportunities - About one month before the delivery of the 07 contract, the holding cost of lithium carbonate was about 1,277 yuan/ton (after offsetting margin with warehouse receipts, the futures capital cost can be saved). Starting from the end of June 2025, there was an opportunity for a "buy spot - sell futures" trade for those with the ability to register warehouse receipts. The spread between the 07 - 08 contracts generally showed a positive spread trend, possibly related to the continuous reduction of warehouse receipts [16][18][19]. 3.4 Later Evaluation - The holding cost of the "buy spot - sell 09" combination is about 1,668 yuan/ton. The current spot - futures basis is below - 1,500. Those with the ability to register warehouse receipts can appropriately participate in the "buy spot - sell 09" combination [21]. - As of July 16, the exchange's lithium carbonate warehouse receipts volume decreased to 10,655 tons. Due to the continuous reduction of warehouse receipts and the warehouse receipt cancellation rule at the end of July, the risk of a squeeze in the 08 and subsequent contracts is expected to increase. If the warehouse receipts do not increase significantly near the delivery date, there is a risk of a squeeze in the 08 and subsequent contracts. The "buy 08/09 - sell 11" positive spread combination can be held, and continuous attention should be paid to changes in warehouse receipts [25].