Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of industrial silicon are in a pattern of oversupply, high inventory, and industry losses, resulting in a volatile market with upward pressure and downward support [2]. - For polysilicon, the high - inventory pressure is difficult to ease in the short term, and the price is expected to be weak. The industry's over - capacity reduction is still the general direction, and the method will return to market - based means [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review Industrial Silicon - Spot prices of industrial silicon increased, with the price of oxygen - passed 553 silicon in East China rising by 100 yuan/ton to 9200 yuan/ton, and the price of non - oxygen - passed 553 silicon rising by 1000 yuan/ton to 9200 yuan/ton. The 2605 contract of industrial silicon futures decreased by 0.5% week - on - week to 8645 yuan/ton, and the futures index position decreased by 29,800 lots to 350,000 lots [6]. Polysilicon - Spot prices of polysilicon decreased, with the average spot price of N - type dense material decreasing by 3.5 yuan/kg to 43.5 yuan/kg, and the average spot price of N - type mixed material decreasing by 4 yuan/kg to 42 yuan/kg. The 2605 contract of polysilicon futures increased by 4% week - on - week to 42,760 yuan/ton, and the futures index position decreased by 4361 lots to 54,200 lots [9]. Supply Side Industrial Silicon - Some large factories have restarted some furnaces, and the rest will restart successively. It is expected that the average daily output of industrial silicon in March will increase by about 13% month - on - month. In February, the output of industrial silicon was 275,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 26.58% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.77% [2][15]. Polysilicon - In March, the output of polysilicon may increase due to some small enterprises' start - up plans and the increase in the number of days. The global output is expected to exceed 90,000 tons. As of March 12, the polysilicon inventory was about 357,000 tons, an increase of 9000 tons from the previous period [37]. Cost Side Industrial Silicon - The southwest region is in the dry season, with high electricity prices. The production in the southwest is in a loss state. As of January 31, the average production cost of 553 silicon nationwide was 10,178.3 yuan/ton, with a loss of 1010 yuan/ton; the average production cost of 421 silicon was 10,410.48 yuan/ton, with a loss of 1328 yuan/ton [22][24]. Policy and Industry News - The market supervision department has proposed rectification opinions on the "anti - involution" of polysilicon in the name of "anti - monopoly", which may lead the industry to return to market - based over - capacity reduction [26]. - The energy consumption standard for polysilicon unit products has been further tightened. If the enterprise's unit product comprehensive energy consumption is higher than the third - level standard, it may need to withdraw [30]. Demand Side Industrial Silicon - In the 3 - 5 month period, the organic silicon is expected to operate at a low load, the aluminum alloy start - up rate may seasonally recover, and the polysilicon also has a certain month - on - month increase, but the supply increase is expected to be greater than the demand increase [2]. Polysilicon - In March, the output of the photovoltaic main material link is expected to increase month - on - month, but the sustainability is poor. The downstream acceptance of polysilicon price increases is low [37]. Inventory Side - As of March 12, the social inventory of industrial silicon (including warehouse receipts) was 552,000 tons, a decrease of 1000 tons from the previous period. The factory + social inventory (including warehouse receipts) totaled 749,100 tons, an increase of 200 tons from the previous period [54]. Strategy Suggestions Industrial Silicon - New orders: Wait and see. Options: Wait and see. Hedging: Upstream enterprises should conduct low - proportion selling hedging; downstream enterprises such as polysilicon and aluminum alloy should conduct medium - proportion buying hedging. Futures - spot arbitrage: Wait and see. Spread arbitrage: Wait and see [3]. Polysilicon - Adopt the idea of shorting on rebounds and manage positions well. Options: Hold out - of - the - money call options in an appropriate amount and hold them until maturity to obtain option premiums. Hedging: Upstream enterprises can appropriately reduce the selling hedging ratio (medium - level overall); downstream enterprises can appropriately increase the buying hedging ratio as the price falls (the overall level should not be too high). Spread arbitrage: Wait and see [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to geopolitical conflicts, energy prices have risen significantly this week, and the downstream chemical product cost increase expectation is emerging. The main 05 contract of soda ash has fluctuated upward, but the subsequent upward space of soda ash prices may be limited because the industry is facing great inventory removal pressure [4]. - The spread between soda ash 05&09 may tend to weaken in the future because the high inventory of the industry has a more obvious suppression effect on the 05 contract [4]. - The spot market of soda ash is mainly stable recently, with some enterprises slightly increasing prices. The actual increase in downstream demand is relatively limited [7]. - The basis has narrowed slightly, and the spread between 05&09 has adjusted narrowly. In the medium - term, the strengthening space of the spread may be limited [10]. - The supply of soda ash is increasing, and the demand improvement is limited. The industry inventory continues to rise, and the subsequent inventory removal pressure remains high, which will put pressure on the futures price [32]. - The profit of the soda ash industry has adjusted narrowly, and the overall industry is still in a loss stage. In the medium - term expansion cycle, low industry profit may become the norm [35]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Price - Affected by geopolitical conflicts, the main 05 contract of soda ash fluctuated upward this week. As of Thursday, the closing price of the soda ash 2605 contract was 1,225 yuan/ton, and that of the 2609 contract was 1,281 yuan/ton, with the price center shifting slightly upward [4]. Spot Market - The spot market of soda ash is mainly stable recently, with some enterprises slightly increasing prices. The downstream demand is gradually resuming, and the raw material inventory has decreased, leading to low - price replenishment by downstream enterprises, but the actual increase is relatively limited [7]. - As of now, the price of heavy soda ash in North China is 1,230 - 1,300 yuan/ton, in East China is about 1,250 - 1,300 yuan/ton, and in Central China is about 1,250 - 1,300 yuan/ton. The market price of light soda ash in East China is 1,160 yuan/ton, in North China is about 1,200 yuan/ton, and in Central China is about 1,130 yuan/ton [7]. Basis and Spread - The weak operation of the spot market has dragged the basis to narrow slightly, and the overall fluctuation elasticity is relatively limited. As of Thursday, the basis of the North China heavy soda ash 05 contract is about - 5 yuan/ton, and that of the Central China heavy soda ash 05 contract is about - 75 yuan/ton [10]. - As of Thursday, the spread between soda ash 05&09 is - 56 yuan/ton, with a narrow adjustment. In the medium - term, the strengthening space of the spread may be limited [10]. Supply Side - This week, the domestic soda ash operating rate continued to rise compared with last week. As of March 5, the comprehensive capacity utilization rate of domestic soda ash was about 86.77%, a 1.73% increase from last week [11]. - This week, the soda ash output continued to rise. As of March 5, the soda ash output was about 807,000 tons, a 16,000 - ton increase from last week. Among them, the output of light soda ash was about 374,700 tons, a 6,800 - ton increase, and the output of heavy soda ash was about 432,300 tons, a 9,200 - ton increase [15]. - As of March 5, the domestic soda ash enterprise shipment volume was about 738,200 tons, a 53.26% increase from last week; the overall soda ash shipment rate was about 93.32%, a significant increase from last week [15]. Demand Side - This week, the apparent demand for soda ash rebounded month - on - month [18]. - The daily melting volume of glass has been fluctuating at a low level, providing insufficient support for the consumption of raw material soda ash. The daily output of float glass has remained stable. As of March 5, the domestic float glass daily output was about 148,500 tons, the same as the previous period; the weekly float glass output was about 1,039,700 tons, a 0.17% slight increase [22]. - As of March 5, the domestic photovoltaic glass in - production capacity was about 87,760 tons per day, a 0.9% decrease from last week; the current capacity utilization rate was about 65.93%, and the enterprise kiln blocking volume remained stable this week [22]. - The float glass inventory has increased significantly month - on - month. As of March 5, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 79.637 million heavy boxes, a 3.629 - million - heavy - box increase from the previous period, a rise of about 4.77%, equivalent to 35.3 days of inventory, 1.5 days more than the previous period [23]. - The inventory pressure of float glass traders in Shahe is prominent, and the factory inventory has also increased significantly. At present, the inventory of Shahe traders is about 8.4 million weight boxes, a 1.68 - million - ton increase from last week, and the factory inventory in Shahe as of March 6 is about 5.356 million weight boxes, a 526,400 - weight - box increase from last week [25]. - The cold - repair loss of float glass decreased slightly this week. As of March 5, the national float glass loss was about 356,350 tons, a slight decrease from the previous period [28]. - Recently, the industrial profit of float glass has improved month - on - month. As of March 5, the weekly average profit of domestic float glass using natural gas as fuel was about - 105.12 yuan/ton, a 37.14 - yuan/ton increase from the previous period; the weekly average profit of float glass using coal - made gas as fuel was about - 36.29 yuan/ton, a 5.5 - yuan/ton decrease from last week; the weekly average profit of float glass using petroleum coke as fuel was about 26.79 yuan/ton, a 17.14 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period [28]. Inventory Side - The soda ash industry inventory continued to increase month - on - month, and the absolute inventory reached a new high. As of March 5, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was about 1.9472 million tons, including about 1.0273 million tons of light soda ash and about 0.9199 million tons of heavy soda ash [32]. Profit Side - The profit of the soda ash industry has adjusted narrowly, with relatively little change. As of March 5, the theoretical profit (double - ton) of domestic soda ash produced by the combined - soda process was about - 2.5 yuan/ton, a 1 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period; the theoretical profit of domestic soda ash produced by the ammonia - soda process was about - 82.65 yuan/ton, a 7.5 - yuan/ton increase from the previous period [35].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Views of the Report - Options: Hold off for now [5] - Supply side: As of the week of March 13, the asphalt开工率 decreased by 6.51 percentage points week-on-week to 24.75%; the weekly asphalt output decreased by 10.39 tons week-on-week to 37.94 tons. Affected by the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, the high valuation of asphalt continued to decline significantly to a low level. Most refineries' production raw materials were affected to varying degrees. Sinopec's main refineries in Shandong stopped producing and selling asphalt, major local refineries reduced production and limited shipments, and most other local refineries also maintained low production or stopped production [5]. - Demand side: As of the week of March 13, the domestic asphalt shipment volume was 17.61 tons, an increase of 1.98 tons week-on-week; the开工率 of road modified asphalt was 9%, an increase of 1 percentage point week-on-week; the开工率 of waterproofing membrane asphalt was 33%, an increase of 3 percentage points week-on-week. The asphalt shipment volume was at a low level year-on-year, and the seasonal recovery of the开工 rates of road and waterproofing modified asphalt was lower than the same period last year. The rapid rise in crude oil prices at the cost end, weak demand, and a wait-and-see attitude among middle and downstream players led to few transactions, and refineries and traders were reluctant to sell [5]. - Inventory side: Asphalt refineries slightly reduced their inventories by 2.7 tons, while social inventories continued to accumulate significantly by 11.13 tons [5]. - Unilateral: Driven by the cost side, the absolute price of asphalt strengthened, but due to weak demand, its performance was worse than that of crude oil, and its valuation declined significantly. With high uncertainty on the cost side, asphalt prices mainly fluctuated accordingly [5]. - Cross-variety arbitrage: Hold off for now [5] - Spot-futures and inter-period arbitrage: The risk-free arbitrage of BU2603 - 2604 can be held until maturity [5] Summary by Directory Supply Perspective - Domestic asphalt开工率 and weekly output are at a historically low level year-on-year. Multiple refineries have stopped production, including Shengxing Petrochemical, Qilu Petrochemical, Ningbo Keyuan, Fujian United, and Yunnan Petrochemical [6][7]. - The asphalt开工率 decreased by 6.51 percentage points week-on-week to 24.75% [9]. - The weekly asphalt output decreased by 10.39 tons week-on-week to 37.94 tons [20]. - There are numerous asphalt plant maintenance plans across different regions and enterprises, affecting asphalt production capacity and production schedules [23][24]. Demand Perspective - The rapid rise in crude oil prices at the cost end has led to weak demand. Middle and downstream players are waiting and watching, resulting in few transactions. Refineries and traders are reluctant to sell. Different regions have different market situations, such as in Shandong, North China, East China, Northeast China, Northwest China, South China, and Southwest China [26]. - The asphalt shipment volume is at a low level year-on-year. The seasonal recovery of the开工 rates of road and waterproofing modified asphalt is lower than the same period last year. As of the week of March 13, the domestic asphalt shipment volume was 17.61 tons, an increase of 1.98 tons week-on-week; the开工 rate of road modified asphalt was 9%, an increase of 1 percentage point week-on-week; the开工 rate of waterproofing membrane asphalt was 33%, an increase of 3 percentage points week-on-week [27]. - In the next ten days, strong cold air will affect areas north of the Yangtze River, and there will be more rainy days in the eastern part of Southwest China and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, which may further affect asphalt demand [29]. Inventory Perspective - Refineries' asphalt inventories slightly decreased. As of the week of March 13, the domestic asphalt refinery inventory was 90.4 (-2.7) tons, with different inventory changes in various regions [35]. - Social inventories continued to accumulate significantly. As of the week of March 13, the domestic asphalt social inventory was 205.94 (+11.13) tons, with different inventory changes in various regions [43]. Basis Perspective - The basis is moderately high driven by geopolitical factors [59]. Spread Perspective - Hold off on spread arbitrage for now [72]. Profit Perspective - The asphalt production gross profit has declined significantly. As of the week of March 13, the asphalt gross profit was -265 yuan/ton (-193), the asphalt production cost was 4022 yuan/ton (+643), and the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory was 80 tons (-5). The high valuation of asphalt continued to decline significantly to a low level under the influence of the Iranian geopolitical situation [86]. - The asphalt crack spread has declined from a high level to a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years [87]. Warehouse Receipt Perspective - Warehouse receipts increased slightly [101]. - The virtual-to-real ratio is moderately low [104].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - This week, the urea 05 contract futures price rose significantly, reaching a phased high, and the price is expected to remain strong in the short term, but the upside space may be limited due to price controls [4][5]. - The international situation has pushed up international urea prices, widening the price gap between the domestic and international markets, and providing support for the domestic market sentiment [6]. - The urea basis has declined, and the UR05&09 spread has narrowed [10]. - The number of urea warehouse receipts has continued to increase [11]. - Urea plant maintenance has decreased, and the plant is operating at a high load [14]. - The urea production has remained stable, and the开工 rate has slightly decreased [16]. - The compound fertilizer industry has seen an increase in the start - up rate, a decrease in inventory, and narrow profit adjustments, with potential for further load increase [19]. - The melamine industry's start - up rate has rebounded, and production has increased, with expectations of further improvement [21][22]. - Urea enterprise inventory has decreased, port inventory has slightly decreased, and the number of pre - orders has increased [23]. - The theoretical profit of the urea industry has continued to improve, especially for the fixed - bed process [26]. Group 3: Summary by Sections Futures Price Trends - The urea 05 contract futures price has been strong this week, reaching a phased high. As of Thursday's close, the UR2605 contract price was reported at 1,875 yuan/ton. The short - term price is supported by external market sentiment and demand, but the upside space is limited [4][5]. Spot Market Price Trends - In the domestic market, the urea spot price has remained stable, with limited adjustment space due to price guidance. In the international market, the price has continued to rise, widening the domestic - international price gap [6]. Basis and Spread - The basis has declined as the futures price is strong and the spot price is controlled. As of Thursday, the Shandong 05 contract basis was about 15 yuan/ton, and the Henan 05 contract basis was about - 15 yuan/ton. The UR05&09 spread has narrowed, reaching about - 15 yuan/ton as of Thursday [10]. Warehouse Receipts - As the futures price has risen, the number of urea warehouse receipts has continued to increase. As of Thursday, there were about 6,380 warehouse receipts, mainly distributed in Yuntu Holdings [11]. Plant Maintenance and Production - This week, the urea plant maintenance has decreased. As of March 12, the plant maintenance volume was about 98,100 tons, a decrease of 2,200 tons from the previous period. The urea start - up rate has slightly decreased, and the production has remained stable [14][16]. Compound Fertilizer Industry - The compound fertilizer start - up rate has increased significantly, with a current start - up rate of about 45.56%. The profit has been narrowly adjusted, and the inventory has decreased by 2.28% [19]. Melamine Industry - The melamine start - up rate has rebounded to about 53.35%, and the production has increased to about 28,200 tons. There are expectations for further improvement in the start - up rate [21][22]. Inventory - Urea enterprise inventory has decreased by about 12.79%, port inventory has decreased slightly, and the number of pre - orders has increased to about 8.06 days [23]. Industry Profit - The theoretical profit of the urea industry has continued to improve. As of March 12, the fixed - bed process profit was about 209 yuan/ton, the water - coal slurry profit was about 322 yuan/ton, and the natural gas profit was about - 128 yuan/ton [26].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical conflicts have led to a strong performance in the energy and chemical sectors this week. The price of the main contract of soda ash, 05, has been rising, with the closing price of the 2605 contract at 1,256 yuan/ton and the 2609 contract at 1,322 yuan/ton as of Thursday. The short - term strength of the market is due to external sentiment, but the supply - demand situation of soda ash itself remains weak, with high inventory pressure [5]. - The external uncertainty increases short - term price volatility. Although the external sentiment is high, the weak fundamentals may weaken the subsequent rebound momentum of soda ash, so caution is advised [5]. - In terms of arbitrage, due to the greater suppression of the 05 contract by high industrial inventory, the spread between 05 and 09 contracts of soda ash is likely to run weakly [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Price - As of Thursday, the closing price of the soda ash 2605 contract was 1,256 yuan/ton, and the 2609 contract was 1,322 yuan/ton, with the price center gradually moving up [5]. Spot Market - The soda ash spot market has strengthened steadily recently, with mainstream prices in various regions increasing slightly. The current spot market has abundant supply, and downstream buyers mainly restock at low prices, with new order transactions slowing down [7]. - As of now, the price of heavy soda ash in North China is 1,280 - 1,320 yuan/ton, in East China is about 1,280 - 1,320 yuan/ton, and in Central China is about 1,280 - 1,320 yuan/ton. The market price of light soda ash in East China is 1,200 yuan/ton, in North China is about 1,250 yuan/ton, and in Central China is about 1,130 yuan/ton [7]. Basis and Spread - In terms of basis, the strong rally of the futures market has dragged the basis to gradually weaken. As of Thursday, the basis of the North China heavy soda ash 05 contract is about - 6 yuan/ton, and the Central China heavy soda ash 05 contract is about - 106 yuan/ton [10]. - As of Thursday, the spread between the 05 and 09 contracts of soda ash is - 66 yuan/ton, mainly in a weak shock. In the medium term, the spread may continue to run weakly due to high industrial inventory [10]. Supply Side - The domestic soda ash production start - up rate increased compared with last week. As of March 12, the comprehensive capacity utilization rate of domestic soda ash was about 87%, a 0.23% increase from last week. Among them, the capacity utilization rate of the ammonia - soda process was about 90.45%, remaining flat from last week; the capacity utilization rate of the combined - process was about 79.55%, a 3.23% increase. The overall capacity utilization rate of 16 enterprises with an annual production capacity of one million tons or more was 89%, a 1.31% decrease [11]. - Soda ash production capacity continues to rise, and subsequent supply will remain at a high level. It is estimated that the short - term start - up rate will remain at a high level [11]. - As of March 12, the soda ash output was about 809,200 tons, a 2,200 - ton increase from last week. Among them, the light soda ash output was about 380,900 tons, a 6,200 - ton increase, and the heavy soda ash output was about 428,300 tons, a 4,000 - ton decrease [16]. - As of March 12, the domestic soda ash enterprise shipment volume was about 822,500 tons, a 11.43% increase from last week; the overall soda ash shipment rate was about 101.92%, continuing to increase from last week [16]. Demand Side - The apparent demand for soda ash continued to rise this week [18]. - The daily output of float glass decreased slightly. As of March 12, the daily output of domestic float glass was about 146,900 tons, a 10,800 - ton decrease from the previous period; the weekly output of float glass was about 1,033,300 tons, a 0.62% decrease. The capacity utilization rate of the float glass industry was 71.09%, a 0.1% decrease from last week [21]. - As of March 12, the in - production capacity of domestic photovoltaic glass was about 87,760 tons per day, remaining flat from last week; the current capacity utilization rate was about 65.93%, and the number of blocked kilns of enterprises remained stable this week [21]. - The decline in daily melting volume provides weak support for the consumption of raw material soda ash [21]. Inventory Side - The inventory of the soda ash industry continued to increase, with the absolute inventory amount adjusting at a high level. As of March 12, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was about 1.9317 million tons, including about 1.0136 million tons of light soda ash and about 0.9181 million tons of heavy soda ash [33]. - The improvement of downstream demand is relatively limited, and the daily melting volume of glass continues to fluctuate at a low level. Considering the lack of substantial improvement in subsequent demand and the high - level adjustment of device load, it is estimated that the de - stocking pressure of the soda ash industry will still be large, which will weaken part of the rebound momentum [33]. Profitability - The profit of the soda ash industry has improved significantly compared with the previous period. As of March 12, the theoretical profit (double - ton) of domestic combined - process soda ash was about 166 yuan/ton, a 168.5 - yuan increase from the previous period; the theoretical profit of domestic ammonia - soda process soda ash was about - 26.20 yuan/ton, a 56.45 - yuan increase from the previous period [36]. - Recently, geopolitical conflicts have made the energy and chemical sectors strong. Against this background, the price of soda ash has also strengthened. Although the fundamentals are relatively weak, the industry profit has also improved significantly due to the boost of external sentiment. However, the improvement space of industry profit may be limited in the medium - term expansion cycle [36].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: As of the week of February 13, the asphalt开工率 decreased by 2.5 percentage points week - on - week to 29.12%, and the weekly asphalt output decreased by 22,500 tons to 442,800 tons. Some refineries in Shandong stopped asphalt production and switched to residue production, while others planned to resume production. In the Northeast, Dalian Xitai plans to resume asphalt production after the Spring Festival in April. In the Northwest, Xinjiang Karamay Petrochemical's daily asphalt output has recovered to 2,100 tons, with a planned production of about 60,000 tons in February. Although the high valuation of asphalt has declined, the port inventory of diluted asphalt is increasing, and continuous attention should be paid to the Venezuela event and raw material supply [5]. - Demand side: As of the week of February 13, the domestic asphalt shipment volume was 154,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 57,400 tons. The开工率 of road - modified asphalt was 2%, a week - on - week decrease of 7 percentage points, and the开工率 of waterproofing membrane asphalt was 5%, a week - on - week decrease of 10 percentage points. During the Spring Festival holiday, rigid demand and logistics basically stagnated, traders gradually closed for the holiday, and major refineries mainly fulfilled orders [5]. - Inventory side: Asphalt refineries slightly increased their inventory by 5,000 tons, and social inventories continued to increase by 46,400 tons [5]. - Unilateral: Although the asphalt valuation has slightly declined, it is still at a high level, and the demand side remains weak. It is expected to mainly fluctuate with crude oil. Due to the high uncertainty of overseas crude oil during the Spring Festival holiday, it is recommended to wait and see. - Cross - variety arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see for asphalt cracking arbitrage. - Spot - futures and inter - period arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see. - Options: Hold short put options [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply Angle - Refinery production status: Jincheng Petrochemical in Shandong stopped asphalt production and switched to residue production on February 11, Qilu Petrochemical did the same on February 12. Lanqiao Petrochemical will resume asphalt production after the end of equipment maintenance at the end of February, Qicheng Petrochemical will resume production on February 18, and Shengxing Petrochemical stopped asphalt production and switched to residue production on February 4. Dalian Xitai in the Northeast plans to resume asphalt production after the Spring Festival in April. Xinjiang Karamay Petrochemical in the Northwest has its daily asphalt output recovered to 2,100 tons, with a planned production of about 60,000 tons in February [5][7]. -开工率 and output: The asphalt开工率 decreased by 2.5 percentage points week - on - week to 29.12%, and the weekly asphalt output decreased by 22,500 tons to 442,800 tons [5][9][19]. - Equipment maintenance plan: Many refineries across the country are in a state of equipment maintenance, suspension of production, or production switching, including those in the Northwest, Northeast, North China, Central China, East China, the Yangtze River Delta, South China, and Southwest regions [22][23]. Demand Angle - Market situation during the Spring Festival: During the Spring Festival holiday, rigid demand and logistics basically stagnated, traders gradually closed for the holiday, and major refineries mainly fulfilled orders. Different regions had different demand situations, such as demand stagnation in Shandong, slow - down in shipment in North China, and reduced market transactions in East China [26]. - Seasonal decline: As of the week of February 13, the domestic asphalt shipment volume, the开工率 of road - modified asphalt, and the开工率 of waterproofing membrane asphalt all seasonally declined to low levels. The asphalt shipment volume was 154,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 57,400 tons; the开工率 of road - modified asphalt was 2%, a week - on - week decrease of 7 percentage points; and the开工率 of waterproofing membrane asphalt was 5%, a week - on - week decrease of 10 percentage points [5][28][29]. - Weather impact: In the next ten days, there will be strong precipitation in the northern part of the Yangtze River Basin, and the average temperature in most parts of the country will be high but with large fluctuations in cold and warm. This may have an impact on asphalt demand [31][33]. Inventory Angle - Refinery inventory: As of the week of February 13, domestic asphalt refinery inventories slightly increased by 5,000 tons to 846,600 tons. Inventories in different regions showed different trends [36]. - Social inventory: As of the week of February 13, domestic asphalt social inventories continued to increase by 46,400 tons to 1,570,500 tons. Inventories in different regions also showed different trends [44]. Basis Angle - Recent basis changes are not significant, as shown by the basis data of different contracts such as BU02, BU05, etc. [60][61][62]. Spread Angle - It is recommended to wait and see for spread arbitrage, as shown by the spread data of different contract combinations such as BU02 - 03, BU05 - 06, etc. [74][75][76]. Profit Angle - Production profit: As of the week of February 13, the asphalt production gross profit was 8 yuan/ton, a decrease of 125 yuan/ton, and the asphalt production cost was 3,216 yuan/ton, an increase of 41 yuan/ton. The port inventory of domestic diluted asphalt was 980,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons. The high valuation of asphalt has declined, and the port inventory of diluted asphalt is increasing. Attention should be paid to whether the Venezuela event affects raw material supply [89]. - Cracking spread: The asphalt cracking spread at a high level has slightly declined, as shown by the data of different contract combinations such as BU02/SC03, BU02/Brent04, etc. [91][92][93]. Warehouse Receipt Angle - Warehouse receipt quantity: The warehouse receipts slightly increased. - Virtual - to - real ratio: The virtual - to - real ratios of contracts 04 and 05 have declined from high levels, while those of other contracts are neutral [108][109].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the pre - holiday urea price remains firm, with the 05 contract being relatively resistant to decline. In the medium - term, attention should be paid to the industry's inventory accumulation after the holiday. The 05&09 spread may continue to oscillate strongly due to the optimistic expectation of peak - season demand. The industry profit is improving but the upside may be limited due to the overall loose supply - demand situation [6][8][23] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Price and Market Conditions - The 05 contract of urea rebounded this week, reaching a new high on Thursday. The UR2605 contract closed at 1843 yuan/ton on Thursday. The pre - holiday urea market is strong. Although the demand is ending, the downstream replenishment is active, the factory orders are good and the inventory is controllable. The 05 contract may resist decline after the holiday supported by the spring - plowing demand [6] - The spot prices in various regions are firm, with the downstream actively replenishing. The factory's offer prices are gradually rising, and the market sentiment is positive. The mainstream ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Shandong is about 1760 - 1800 yuan/ton [8] - The basis of the 05 contract in Shandong and Henan oscillated and declined this week. As of Thursday, the basis of Shandong's 05 contract was about - 43 yuan/ton, and that of Henan's was about - 33 yuan/ton. The UR03&05 spread was about - 19 yuan/ton, and the UR05&09 spread was about 40 yuan/ton, and the latter may continue to oscillate strongly [8] Warehouse Receipts - The number of warehouse receipts has been falling from a high level recently. As the warehouse receipts will be concentratedly cancelled in February, the number will further decline. As of Thursday, there were about 10,949 urea warehouse receipts, mainly distributed in Huilong Group, Anhui Zhongneng, and Zhongnong Holdings [9] Device Maintenance and Production - This week, the urea device maintenance volume was about 143,200 tons, a decrease of 16,800 tons from the previous period. The coal - based device maintenance volume was about 93,500 tons, an increase of 4,600 tons, and the gas - based device maintenance volume was about 49,700 tons, a decrease of 21,400 tons. The supply pressure may continue to recover [12] - As of February 12, the domestic urea operating rate was about 90.59%, a rise of about 1.45% from the previous period. The weekly urea output was about 1.4931 million tons, an increase of 23,900 tons from last week, and the average daily output was about 213,300 tons, a slight increase of 3,400 tons. The inventory device load may further increase [14] Demand Side - The compound fertilizer operating rate decreased significantly this week. As of February 12, it was about 36.19%, a decline of 5.6% from last week. The profit was generally stable. The inventory increased by 5.02% to about 787,100 tons. During the Spring Festival, the load will remain low and then gradually recover, which will put pressure on soda ash [15][16] - The melamine operating rate increased slightly to about 60.77% as of February 12, and the output also increased slightly. The resumption of some devices drove the load to rebound, and the market fluctuation is relatively limited due to sufficient pending orders [18] Inventory and Pre - orders - As of February 11, the domestic urea enterprise inventory was about 834,700 tons, a decrease of about 83,800 tons from the previous period, a decline of about 9.12%. The port inventory increased slightly by 1,000 tons to about 166,000 tons. The pre - order days increased to about 11.12 days. After the holiday, the inventory may rise and put pressure on the price [20] Industry Profit - As of February 12, the fixed - bed process profit was about 82 yuan/ton, the water - coal - slurry profit was about 291 yuan/ton, an increase of 28 yuan/ton from last week, and the natural - gas profit was about - 208 yuan/ton. The industry profit has been improving and may continue to improve after the holiday, but the upside is limited due to the loose supply - demand situation [23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The price of soda ash is likely to remain weak due to the expected post - holiday inventory build - up. The supply - demand fundamentals are weakening, with supply increasing and demand decreasing, which will continue to put pressure on the market [5]. - The spread between soda ash 05 and 09 contracts may run weakly in the future [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Price - The main contract 05 of soda ash continued to decline in a volatile manner this week, with the price center moving down. As of Thursday, the closing price of soda ash 2603 contract was 1118 yuan/ton, and that of soda ash 2605 contract was 1162 yuan/ton [5]. Spot Market - The soda ash spot market has become dull, with more shipments and less new orders. As of now, the heavy - soda price in North China is 1190 - 1300 yuan/ton, in East China is about 1250 - 1300 yuan/ton, and in Central China is about 1250 - 1300 yuan/ton. The light - soda price in East China is 1160 yuan/ton, in North China is about 1200 yuan/ton, and in Central China is about 1130 yuan/ton [7]. Basis and Spread - The basis of soda ash 05 contract has strengthened. As of Thursday, the basis of North China heavy - soda 05 contract is about 58 yuan/ton, and that of Central China heavy - soda 05 contract is about - 12 yuan/ton. The spread between soda ash 03 and 05 contracts has adjusted downward. As of Thursday, the spread between soda ash 03 and 05 contracts is - 44 yuan/ton, and that between soda ash 05 and 09 contracts is - 67 yuan/ton. In the medium term, the spreads are likely to continue to oscillate weakly [11]. Supply Side - The domestic soda ash start - up rate rebounded this week. As of February 12, the comprehensive capacity utilization rate of domestic soda ash was about 85.18%, a 1.93% increase from last week. The soda ash output continued to rise. As of February 12, the soda ash output was about 79.23 tons, a 1.8 - ton increase from last week. The domestic soda ash enterprise shipment volume was about 78.54 tons, a 6.5% increase from last week, and the overall shipment rate was about 99.13% [12][15]. Demand Side - The apparent demand for soda ash rebounded this week. The daily melting volume of float glass continued to decline, with the daily output of about 14.8 tons this week, a 1.2% decrease from the previous period. The inventory of float glass increased significantly, and the cold - repair loss continued to increase. The profit of float glass improved [17][21][28]. Inventory Side - The inventory of the soda ash industry continued to increase. As of February 12, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was about 158.80 tons. Considering the demand shrinkage and sufficient supply during the holiday, the soda ash market is expected to face inventory build - up pressure after the holiday [30]. Profit - The profit of the soda ash industry continued to decline slightly. As of February 12, the theoretical profit of domestic dual - process soda ash was about - 32.5 yuan/ton, a 3.5 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period, and the theoretical profit of domestic ammonia - soda process soda ash was about - 89.25 yuan/ton, a 0.45 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period. The industry is still in a loss stage [33].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The current soda ash market sentiment is poor, and prices may run weakly. However, the absolute valuation of soda ash is not high. As the load and inventory gradually decline, the room for further price decline may be limited [6]. - The improvement in the light soda ash market and the decline in soda ash load have partially alleviated the downward trend of the near - term contract, but the continuous weakness on the demand side may suppress the driving force for prices to continue to strengthen. The impact of the main contract roll - over on the price spread should be monitored, and in the short term, it is more likely to continue the volatile adjustment [10]. - In the medium - term expansion cycle, low industry profits may become the norm due to the continuous rise in costs [36]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Price - This week, the main 01 contract of soda ash weakened and fell below the recent phased low, with the price center of gravity moving down again. As of Thursday's close, the 01 contract of soda ash finally closed at 1,158 yuan/ton [6]. Spot Market - Recently, the price of light soda ash has been relatively firm, while the price of heavy soda ash has continued to be weakly stable, with downstream demand mainly for rigid restocking. As of Thursday, the closing price of the 2601 contract of soda ash was 1,158 yuan/ton. As of now, the price of heavy soda ash in North China is 1,210 - 1,320 yuan/ton, about 1,260 - 1,320 yuan/ton in East China, and about 1,230 - 1,320 yuan/ton in Central China. The market price of light soda ash in East China is 1,180 yuan/ton, about 1,250 yuan/ton in North China, and about 1,150 yuan/ton in Central China [8]. Basis and Spread - In terms of basis, the basis of the 01 contract in each region has strengthened month - on - month. As of Thursday, the basis of the 01 contract of heavy soda ash in North China was about 142 yuan/ton, and about 42 yuan/ton in Central China. In terms of spread, as of Thursday, the spread between the 01 and 05 contracts of soda ash was - 74 yuan/ton, with a narrow month - on - month adjustment [10]. Production Capacity Utilization - This week, the domestic soda ash operating rate continued to decline compared with last week. As of November 20, the comprehensive capacity utilization rate of domestic soda ash was about 82.68%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.12%. Among them, the utilization rate of ammonia - soda production capacity was about 89.77%, a decrease of 1.08% compared with last week; the utilization rate of combined - soda production capacity was about 69.51%, a month - on - month decrease of about 3.58%. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual production capacity of one million tons or more was 89.41%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08% [12]. Production and Shipment - In terms of production, as of November 20, the soda ash output was about 720,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18,500 tons. Among them, the output of light soda ash was about 324,700 tons, a decrease of 3,700 tons; the output of heavy soda ash was about 396,200 tons, a decrease of about 14,700 tons. In terms of shipment, as of November 20, the shipment volume of domestic soda ash enterprises was about 783,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.03%; the overall shipment rate of soda ash was about 108.73%, a month - on - month increase of 7.79% [15]. Demand - This week, the apparent demand for soda ash continued to improve month - on - month, and the apparent demand for light soda ash continued to rise month - on - month [17]. Glass Industry - The daily output of float glass decreased slightly month - on - month. This week, the daily output of domestic float glass was about 158,100 tons, a decrease of 0.66% from the previous period; the weekly output of float glass was about 1,110,200 tons, a decrease of 0.34%. As of November 20, the capacity utilization rate of the float glass industry was 79.03%, a decrease of 0.53% from the previous period. As of November 20, the in - production capacity of domestic photovoltaic glass was about 89,380 tons per day, unchanged from last week; the current capacity utilization rate was about 68.35%. This week, the kiln - blocking volume was relatively stable, with the actual kiln - blocking volume at about 820 tons per day [20]. - The inventory of float glass increased slightly month - on - month. As of November 20, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.303 million heavy boxes, an increase of 56,000 heavy boxes from the previous period, a rise of about 0.09%, equivalent to 27.7 days of inventory, an increase of 0.2 days from the previous period. The factory inventory in Hubei was about 6.14 million heavy boxes, an increase of 250,000 heavy boxes from last week. The inventory of float glass traders in Shahe decreased slightly month - on - month. As of November 20, the inventory of traders in Shahe was about 4.24 million weight boxes, a decrease of 240,000 weight boxes from last week. The factory inventory in Shahe continued to increase month - on - month. As of November 20, the factory inventory in Shahe was about 4.636 million weight boxes, an increase of 225,600 weight boxes from last week [22][26]. - In terms of float glass maintenance, the cold - repair loss increased slightly from the previous period this week. As of November 20, the national float glass loss was about 288,930 tons. In terms of profit performance, the industry profit has continued to weaken month - on - month recently. As of November 20, the weekly average profit of domestic float glass using natural gas as fuel was about - 206.84 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19.14 yuan/ton from the previous period; the weekly average profit of float glass using coal - made gas as fuel was about 26.07 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25.19 yuan/ton from last week; the weekly average profit of float glass using petroleum coke as fuel was about 8.52 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan/ton from the previous period [31]. Inventory - The inventory of the soda ash industry decreased slightly compared with the data on Monday. As of November 20, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was about 1.6444 million tons, a decrease of about 7,300 tons from Monday, a decline of about 0.44%. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was about 757,100 tons, a decrease of 12,800 tons; the inventory of heavy soda ash was about 887,300 tons, an increase of 5,500 tons [33]. Industry Profit - The profit of the soda ash industry continued to fluctuate narrowly. As of November 20, the theoretical profit (double - ton) of domestic combined - soda process soda ash was about - 153.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 28.5 yuan/ton from the previous period; the theoretical profit of domestic ammonia - soda process soda ash was about - 38.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton from the previous period [36].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Options: Consider partial profit - taking on deeply out - of - the - money short put options [5]. - Hedging: Lithium salt producers should moderately increase the proportion of selling hedging, and downstream enterprises can buy hedging in a medium - proportion according to orders to lock in procurement costs [5]. - Basis: Hold a small - position long spot - short futures positive arbitrage portfolio (entering delivery) and manage risks well [5]. - Calendar spread: Participate in a small - position short 03 - long 05 reverse arbitrage portfolio [5]. - Unilateral strategy: As the exchange takes measures to cool down, long - position funds may gradually take profits, potentially leading to a short - term price correction. Short - position entry should be in a light position with profit - taking settings [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply Side - In Yichun, the probability of production suspension in operating mines is low. The 8 lithium - related mines in Yichun have all submitted mineral type change reserve verification reports. The Jiaxiaowo Mine is expected to have a low probability of resuming production this year, though there are still reports indicating a possible December restart [6][14][15]. - The prices of lithium raw materials have increased. As of November 20, the price of Australian lithium spodumene concentrate increased by 195 to 1245 US dollars/ton week - on - week, and the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) increased by 420 to 2700 yuan/ton [15]. - The production of lithium carbonate from various raw materials has increased. In the week of November 20, the production of lithium carbonate was 22,130 tons, a week - on - week increase of 585 tons. In October 2025, the monthly total production of domestic lithium carbonate was 92,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6% and a year - on - year increase of 55%. It is expected that the output in November will remain at the same level as in October [21][22]. - Import data shows that in October 2025, Chile exported 25,000 tons of lithium carbonate, a month - on - month increase of 56%. China imported about 23,900 tons of lithium carbonate, a month - on - month increase of 22% [27]. Demand Side - The new energy vehicle industry is in the peak production and sales season. In October 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.772 million and 1.715 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 21.1% and 20%. From January to October, the cumulative production and sales were 13.015 million and 12.943 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 33.1% and 32.7%. In October, new energy vehicle exports were 256,000, a month - on - month increase of 15% and a year - on - year increase of 100% [33]. - The energy storage demand remains strong. The supply of energy storage cells is growing steadily, and the demand from diversified investment entities for independent energy storage power stations is increasing. Policies in China and other countries are also promoting the development of the energy storage industry [36]. - The lithium battery production in November continues to be prosperous. In November 2025, the planned production of power + energy storage + consumer - type batteries in the Chinese market was 209 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 12.4% and a year - on - year increase of 64.6% [47]. - The production of cathode materials is expected to increase. In October, the production of lithium iron phosphate was 394,350 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.5% and a year - on - year increase of 51%. It is expected that the planned production in November will increase by 8% to 425,898 tons. The production of ternary materials in October was 84,090 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.6% and a year - on - year increase of 43%. The market demand in November is expected to continue to improve [49]. Inventory Side - Both factory inventories and warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate are decreasing. As of November 20, the lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 2052 tons to 118,400 tons week - on - week. The warehouse receipt volume was 26,916 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 254 tons [53]. Basis Analysis - There are opportunities for spot - futures positive arbitrage. The holding cost for 1 month is about 2663 yuan/ton, and for 2 months is about 3317 yuan/ton. Hold the long spot - short futures positive arbitrage portfolio and manage risks well [55]. Spread Analysis - Consider participating in the reverse arbitrage opportunity of the 03 - 05 contracts. The 11 - 12 contracts showed a reverse arbitrage trend approaching the November delivery month. Considering the off - season demand in the first quarter of next year, one can moderately participate in the reverse arbitrage of the 03 - 05 contracts. However, the arbitrage trading space between contracts is limited [59]. Overseas Mines - Some mines have production and cost changes. For example, the Greenbushes Mine's CGP3 project is planned to start commissioning at the end of 2025, and the Mt Pilgangoora Mine's unit operating cost has decreased [60]. - There are many new/expansion projects in 2026, with a total lithium carbonate equivalent of 34.99 tons, including the CGP3 expansion of Greenbushes, the expansion of Goulamina in Mali under Ganfeng Lithium, etc. [61].