镍、不锈钢：短期多空交织，关注底部支撑

Report Title - Nickel & Stainless Steel: Short-term Bullish and Bearish Factors Intertwined, Focus on Bottom Support [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The intraday trend of Shanghai nickel continued to fluctuate. Fundamentally, the inventory of nickel ore arriving from the Philippines increased, weakening the support for nickel ore. The second-phase nickel ore benchmark price in Indonesia in July also decreased, mainly due to weak downstream demand. The intraday transaction price of nickel iron showed a certain stabilization trend, and the latest transactions of iron plants in August increased slightly. Attention should be paid to the subsequent transaction trend. Some large stainless steel manufacturers have entered another production cut cycle. On the spot side, the supply of low-priced resources has decreased, and the futures price has rebounded to some extent. The new energy chain still maintains a production-to-order situation. Indonesia's APNI plans to revise the HPM formula and add elements such as iron and cobalt. If implemented, it will provide some support for the bottom of the nickel price [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Shanghai Nickel Forecast and Management Strategies - The predicted price range of Shanghai nickel is 117,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20-day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [2]. - Inventory management strategies include shorting Shanghai nickel futures to lock in profits and hedge against spot price declines, selling call options, etc. [2]. - Procurement management strategies include buying Shanghai nickel forward contracts based on production plans, selling put options, and buying out-of-the-money call options [2]. 2. Market Influencing Factors - Likely positive factors: The ban on cobalt mines in the Congo continues; Indonesia's APNI plans to revise the HPM formula; Indonesia shortens the nickel ore quota license period from three years to one year; the tariff negotiation between Indonesia and the US may involve the subsequent trend of the nickel industry chain [4]. - Likely negative factors: Stainless steel enters the traditional off-season of demand, and inventory reduction is slow; the contradiction in the nickel iron industry chain deepens, and the oversupply situation remains unchanged; the inventory of pure nickel is high; the seasonal inventory of nickel ore increases, and the bottom support weakens [4][5]. 3. Market Data - Nickel futures: The latest prices of Shanghai nickel main contract, continuous contracts 1 - 3, and LME nickel 3M all decreased compared with the previous day, with trading volume, open interest, and warehouse receipts also showing different degrees of decline [6]. - Stainless steel futures: The latest prices of stainless steel main contract and continuous contracts 1 - 3 increased to varying degrees, with trading volume and open interest increasing, and warehouse receipts decreasing slightly [7]. - Inventory data: The domestic social inventory of nickel increased by 1,144 tons, LME nickel inventory decreased by 6 tons, stainless steel social inventory increased by 12.8 tons, and nickel pig iron inventory decreased by 4,301 tons [8].