南华期货碳酸锂企业风险管理日报-20250717

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The lithium mining, lithium salt, and battery cell markets are under significant inventory pressure, and the de - stocking process is slow. The medium - to - long - term supply - demand imbalance has not been substantially alleviated [3]. - There are two short - term logics in the market. In the price decline cycle, there is a negative feedback loop of "lithium salt price drop - mining price loosening - lithium salt price drop again". When the futures rebound, a "futures rise - capacity release - increased ore consumption - mining price increase" chain is formed, but it will return to the oversupply fundamentals under weak demand [3]. - The futures market in the second half of the year is expected to be divided into two stages: the futures price will oscillate upward at the beginning of the third quarter due to improved macro - sentiment, supply disturbances, and better - than - expected off - season performance; it will oscillate downward in the fourth quarter due to the end of technical upgrades and increased production [3]. - Strategy suggestions: Pay attention to the long - short spread trading opportunity between LC2509 and LC2511; look for opportunities to short LC2511 at high prices [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Data - Price Range Forecast: The price of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is expected to oscillate between 63,000 - 70,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 21.5% and a historical percentile of 28.1% over three years [2]. - Contract Price and Volume Changes: The closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract is 67,960 yuan/ton, up 1,540 yuan (2.32%) from the previous day and 3,780 yuan (5.89%) from the previous week. The trading volume is 826,939 lots, up 348,825 lots (72.96%) from the previous day and 428,917 lots (107.76%) from the previous week. The open interest is 363,676 lots, up 23,058 lots (6.77%) from the previous day and 39,993 lots (12.36%) from the previous week [10]. - Month - spread Changes: The LC08 - 11 month - spread is 880 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan (15.79%) from the previous day and 280 yuan (46.67%) from the previous week; the LC09 - 11 month - spread is 780 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan (34%) from the previous day and 520 yuan (200%) from the previous week; the LC11 - 12 month - spread is - 320 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan (33%) from the previous day and unchanged from the previous week [13]. Spot Data - Lithium Ore Prices: The average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2 - 2.5%) is 1,465 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan (1.03%) from the previous day and 60 yuan (4.27%) from the previous week. The average price of lithium spodumene (Li2O: 6%, Brazilian CIF) is 702.5 US dollars/ton, up 7.5 US dollars (1.08%) from the previous day and 32.5 US dollars (4.85%) from the previous week [18]. - Carbon/Hydrogen Lithium Prices: The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 63,350 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day and up 1,300 yuan (2.10%) from the previous week. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 64,950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day and up 1,300 yuan (2.04%) from the previous week [21]. - Lithium Industry Chain Spot Spreads: The battery - grade lithium carbonate - industrial - grade lithium carbonate spread is 1,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week; the battery - grade lithium hydroxide - battery - grade lithium carbonate spread is - 2,380 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day and down 1,300 yuan (120.37%) from the previous week [23]. - Downstream Product Prices: The average price of power - type lithium iron phosphate is 31,345 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The average price of low - end energy - storage type lithium iron phosphate is 27,660 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [25]. Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - Lithium Carbonate Basis: The basis quotes of different lithium carbonate brands for the LC2507 contract range from - 400 to 500 yuan/ton, with most remaining unchanged [29]. - Lithium Carbonate Warehouse Receipts: The total number of warehouse receipts is 10,239 lots, a decrease of 416 lots from the previous day. Some warehouses such as Wugang Wuxi, Jiuling Lithium Industry (Yichun Fengxin), and Jiuling Lithium Industry (Yichun Yifeng) have seen a decrease in warehouse receipts [34]. Cost and Profit The report shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from purchased lithium spodumene concentrate (Li₂O: 6%) and lithium mica concentrate (Li₂O: 2.5%), as well as the theoretical delivery profit and import profit trends of lithium carbonate, but no specific numerical analysis is provided [32].