国债期货日报-20250717

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The mid - term outlook for the bond market is not bearish, and short - term trading should be based on the rhythm of the stock market. The bond market is in a narrow - range oscillation pattern, and short - term trading can buy on dips according to the A - share rhythm while mid - term long positions should be held [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Content Market Conditions - Treasury bond futures continued the narrow - range oscillation pattern, rising at noon and falling in the afternoon due to the strengthening of the stock market. The trading volume of T and TL contracts decreased continuously. In the open market, 90 billion yuan matured today, and the central bank conducted 450.5 billion yuan of 7 - day pledged repurchase, with a net investment of 360.5 billion yuan [1] News - There were reports that Trump drafted a letter to fire Powell, but Trump denied the dismissal rumor and hinted that there could be justifiable reasons. Hassett, the director of the White House National Economic Council, is the top candidate to succeed Powell, and Trump said he was considering it [2] Market Judgment - During the tax period this week, the central bank has been making large - scale investments, and the DR001 has fallen to around 1.46%, indicating no concerns about the capital side. From the data in June, the economic momentum is weak, and there is still downward pressure in the future. With no negative factors in the fundamentals, the mid - term outlook for the bond market is not bearish. Recently, the main influencing factor is the seesaw effect between stocks and bonds. The A - share market has been rising through sector rotation, and the wind all - A index is approaching last October's high. Affected by this, the bond market's volatility has decreased, and the trading volume of active varieties such as T and TL has significantly declined. The short - term bond market is difficult to break out of the oscillation pattern, and short - term trading can buy on dips according to the A - share rhythm while mid - term long positions should be held [3] Data Overview - The data shows the prices, trading volumes, and positions of TS2509, TF2509, T2509, and TL2509 contracts on July 17, 2025, compared with July 16, 2025, and the same period last week. It also includes information on basis, DR001, DR007, and DR014 [4] Graphical Data - There are multiple graphs showing the net basis and basis of T, TL, TS, and TF contracts, 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond yields, 7Y - 2Y treasury bond spreads, US treasury bond trends, US - China spreads, and exchange - traded fund prices [5][10][13]