山金期货贵金属策略报告-20250717

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No data provided on the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trade war has entered a new stage, with risks of economic recession and geopolitical fluctuations remaining. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and strong employment and inflation are suppressing expectations of interest rate cuts. [1] - It is expected that precious metals will show a pattern of weak gold and strong silver in the short - term, high - level fluctuations in the medium - term, and a step - by - step upward trend in the long - term. [1] - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long positions of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF have been reduced again. In terms of inventory, the visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased recently. [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Gold - Market Performance: Today, precious metals fluctuated weakly. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed down 0.03%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 0.07%. [1] - Core Logic: In the short - term, there are risks of economic recession and geopolitical fluctuations. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and strong employment and inflation are suppressing expectations of interest rate cuts. [1] - Attributes Analysis - Hedging Attribute: Trump has escalated the trade war, and the EU has threatened to take counter - measures against US tariffs. Trump said he does not plan to fire Powell, which has alleviated market concerns. [1] - Monetary Attribute: The Fed's Beige Book shows that US economic activity has increased, but tariffs have brought price pressure, making the outlook pessimistic. US inflation in June remained resilient, but the year - on - year increase in core CPI was 2.9%, and the month - on - month increase was 0.2%, both lower than market expectations. The overall US employment growth was stronger than expected, and the number of initial jobless claims last week unexpectedly dropped to a seven - week low. Currently, the market expects the Fed's next interest rate cut to be in September, and the expected total interest rate cut space in 2025 has fallen back to around 50 basis points. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields fluctuated strongly. [1] - Commodity Attribute: The rebound of the CRB commodity index was under pressure, and the strong RMB suppressed domestic prices. [1] - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels. [2] 3.2 Silver - Price Anchor: The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. [4] - Capital and Inventory: In terms of capital, the net long positions of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF have been reduced again. In terms of inventory, the visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased recently. [4] - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels. [5] 3.3 Fundamental Key Data - Monetary Attribute Data: The federal funds target rate upper limit is 4.50%, the discount rate is 4.50%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 4.40%, the Fed's total assets are 67132.36 billion US dollars, M2 year - on - year growth is 4.50%, the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.61, the US dollar index is 98.32, the US Treasury yield spread (3 - month to 10 - year) is 0.53, etc. [7] - Hedging Attribute Data: The geopolitical risk index is 122.08, and the VIX index is 17.14. [10] - Commodity Attribute Data: The CRB commodity index is 303.15, and the offshore RMB exchange rate is 7.1842. [10] 3.4 Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations The probability distribution of the Fed's interest rate levels at different meetings from July 2025 to December 2026 is provided in the table, showing the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate decisions at different times. [11]