有色金属周报（碳酸锂）：国产与进口锂精矿价格有所升高，碳酸锂价格上涨延缓过剩产能出清-20250717

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic lithium carbonate production and inventory are at high levels, and the supply - demand outlook is loose. However, due to national policy - guided capacity clearance and expectations of automobile consumption stimulus, the prices of domestic and imported lithium concentrates have increased, limiting the downside space for lithium carbonate prices. It is recommended that investors hold their previous long positions cautiously or take profits on rallies, and pay attention to the support level around 63,000 - 65,000 and the resistance level around 68,000 - 70,000 [3] - The lithium carbonate basis is negative and the contango is positive, both within a reasonable range. This is due to the expectation of domestic lithium carbonate over - capacity clearance and the continuation of new energy vehicle consumption stimulus policies. However, the domestic lithium carbonate supply - demand outlook remains loose, and investors are advised to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply Side Lithium Concentrate - Ganfeng Lithium's Mali Goulamina lithium spodumene project phase I with an annual capacity of 506,000 tons of lithium concentrate was officially put into production in July. Tianqi Lithium's Greenbushes lithium mine 520,000 - ton wet - process project may be put into production in October 2025, with the total capacity reaching 2.14 million tons per year. However, the daily prices of domestic and imported lithium ores have increased, and the domestic lithium concentrate production (import) volume in July may decrease (increase) month - on - month [10][11][13] Lithium Carbonate - The capacity utilization rate (production volume) of domestic lithium carbonate has increased compared to last week. Guangdong Haohai Lithium's 6,000 - ton battery - grade lithium carbonate capacity may be put into production in July 2025, and Zijin Liyuan's 25,000 - ton capacity for producing battery - grade lithium carbonate from crude carbon will be completed and put into production in December 2025. The production volume of domestic lithium carbonate (industrial and battery - grade) in July may increase month - on - month, and the supply outlook is loose [27] - The import window is closed, and the import volume of domestic lithium carbonate in July may decrease month - on - month. The daily theoretical delivery profit of domestic lithium carbonate is negative, causing the inventory of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange to decrease compared to last week. The social inventory (of smelters, traders, and downstream) of domestic lithium carbonate has increased compared to last week [30][34] Lithium Hydroxide - The daily cash production cost of domestic smelting (causticizing) lithium hydroxide is 58,700 (67,150) yuan per ton, and the production profit is negative. Yahua Group plans to build a 30,000 - ton lithium hydroxide production line by the end of 2025. The production volume of domestic lithium hydroxide (by smelting and causticizing methods) in July may decrease month - on - month, the inventory (of smelters and downstream) in July may increase month - on - month, and the export volume in July may decrease month - on - month [38][43][48] Demand Side - The production volume of domestic lithium iron phosphate (lithium manganese iron phosphate) in July may increase month - on - month. Hubei Ruipai New Energy's project and Tiancheng Lithium's project, as well as Longpan Technology's project, are expected to contribute to the increase [60] - The production (import) volume of domestic nickel sulfate in July may increase month - on - month. The daily full production cost of domestic MHP/high - grade nickel matte/yellow slag/nickel beans to produce nickel sulfate is 124,100/119,500/126,600/125,200 yuan per nickel ton, and the production profit is negative/positive/negative/negative. The monthly production cost of Indonesian MHP/high - grade nickel matte integrated production of nickel sulfate is 112,000/119,100 yuan per nickel ton, and the production profit is positive [63] - The production volume of domestic lithium cobalt oxide in July may increase month - on - month. The suspension of cobalt exports in the DRC since February 22 and its extension have affected the supply, leading to a decrease in the processing fee of domestic cobalt intermediates and changes in the production of related cobalt products [67] - The production volume of domestic lithium manganate in July may increase month - on - month. The production (export) volume of domestic electrolytic manganese dioxide (lithium manganate type) in July has increased (decreased, decreased) month - on - month [77] - The production volume of domestic ternary precursors in July may increase month - on - month. The monthly processing fee of domestic ternary precursors has decreased month - on - month, the monthly production cost of producing ternary precursors from externally sourced raw materials is 79,450 yuan per ton, and the production profit is negative. The supply - demand outlook for domestic ternary precursors in July may be tight [81][83][87] - The production volume of domestic ternary materials in July may increase month - on - month. The monthly processing fee of domestic ternary materials has decreased month - on - month, the monthly average production cost of polycrystalline consumer - grade 5 - series ternary materials is 107,600 yuan per ton, and the production profit is negative. The inventory of domestic ternary material factories has increased compared to last week [92][93][95] - The production (export) volume of domestic lithium hexafluorophosphate in July may increase month - on - month. The daily production profit of producing solid - state lithium hexafluorophosphate from externally sourced lithium fluoride is negative [103][105][107] - The production volume of domestic lithium batteries in July may increase month - on - month, while the export volume may decrease month - on - month. The production (shipment and inventory) volume of domestic energy - storage cells in July may decrease (decrease, increase) month - on - month, and the production (shipment and inventory) volume of domestic power cells in July may increase (increase, increase) month - on - month [114][118][122] - The production (sales) volume of domestic new energy vehicles in July may increase (decrease) month - on - month [124][126]