资金观察，货币瞭望：跨过季末资金面转松，预计7月资金利率季节性下行

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market has a consistent expectation that the Fed will not cut interest rates in July, and the short - term US Treasury yields are stable. After the end of the quarter, the domestic money market will loosen, and the central bank's attitude to maintain a loose liquidity is clear. It is expected that the domestic money market interest rates will decline seasonally in July [2][3][10] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overseas Key Money Market Indicator Changes Tracking - Since June, the 3 - month US Treasury yield has been stable, and the market has a consistent expectation that the Fed will not cut interest rates in July. The US federal funds rate and SOFR rate have been running smoothly [2][6] - As of 2025, the policy target rate (base money) in Japan is 0.5%, the eurozone's benchmark interest rate (main refinancing rate) is 2.15%, and the US federal funds target rate range is 4.25 - 4.50% [8] Domestic Key Money Market Indicator Changes Tracking Price Indicators - In June, as the quarter - end approached, the money price increased, and most of the average exchange repurchase rates rose. The monthly average values of R001, GC001, R007, and GC007 changed by - 6BP, 13BP, 2BP, and 4BP respectively [2][11][13] - The monthly average yields of 1 - year short - term bonds mostly declined. The monthly average yields of 1 - year Treasury bonds, 1 - year government - backed bonds, 1 - year AAA commercial paper, 1 - year AA commercial paper, 1 - year AA - commercial paper, 1 - year AAA negotiable certificates of deposit, and 1 - year AA+ negotiable certificates of deposit changed by - 6BP, - 1BP, 1BP, - 2BP, - 15BP, - 3BP, and - 3BP respectively [13][32] - The monthly average values of DR001 and DR007 in June both decreased slightly, with changes of - 11BP and - 2BP respectively compared to the previous month. The average 1 - day and 7 - day spreads between R and DR changed by 5BP and 4BP respectively compared to the previous month [18] - The average monthly interest rate of negotiable certificates of deposit decreased slightly in June. The interest rate of 1 - year high - grade and low - grade negotiable certificates of deposit both decreased by 3BP. The interest rate of negotiable certificates of deposit was higher than the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate, and the interest rate spread narrowed [27] - The 7 - day annualized yield of money funds decreased. The 7 - day average annualized yield of Yu'E Bao in June decreased slightly to 1.18%. The average 7 - day annualized yields of Yu'E Bao and the top ten money funds changed by - 8BP and - 4BP respectively compared to the previous month [33] Quantity Indicators - In June, the overnight trading volume and proportion in the inter - bank market both increased compared to the previous month, while those in the exchange market both decreased. The average daily trading volume of R001 in the inter - bank market in June was 6.82 trillion, accounting for 87.6%, and the trading volume and proportion of GC001 in the exchange market were 1.88 trillion and 86.6% respectively [38] - In June, the central bank actively injected liquidity, and the excess deposit reserve ratio increased compared to the previous month. The central bank injected 14,000 billion in outright reverse repurchases in two installments, with a net injection of 2000 billion. It also injected 5,539 billion in liquidity through open - market operations. Fiscal expenditures increased at the end of the quarter, and fiscal deposits decreased by 8,166 billion. The estimated excess deposit reserve ratio in June was 1.5% [42] - The year - on - year monthly average of the balance of bonds to be repurchased in the inter - bank and exchange markets increased compared to the previous month. The year - on - year balance of bonds to be repurchased in the inter - bank market in June increased by 10%, while that in the exchange market decreased by 3% [45] - The volatility index of the exchange overnight repurchase rate mostly increased slightly compared to the previous month. As of the end of June, V(R001) = 0.27, V(R007) = 0.28, V(GC001) = 0.34, and V(GC007) = 0.26 [49] Money Outlook Five - Channel Prediction - M0: In June, M0 increased seasonally by 569 billion. It is estimated that M0 will increase by 600 billion in July [56] - Required Deposit Reserves: In June, RMB loans increased significantly month - on - month, and financial institution deposits increased by 32,100 billion. It is expected that deposits will decrease by 4,000 billion in July, resulting in a decrease of 248 billion in required deposit reserves [57] - Fiscal Deposits: In June, the issuance of special Treasury bonds declined, and government expenditures at the half - year - end increased, resulting in a decrease of 8,166 billion in fiscal deposits. In July, the issuance of ultra - long - term special Treasury bonds will continue as planned, and the issuance of special refinancing bonds will slow down. It is expected that fiscal deposits will increase seasonally by 6,000 billion [60] - Foreign Exchange Occupation: Due to the suspension of Sino - US tariff negotiations and the impact on imports and exports, it is expected that foreign exchange occupation will decrease by 700 billion in July [65] - Open Market Operations: The central bank's attitude to maintain a stable and loose liquidity is clear. It is expected that the central bank will conduct net injections to maintain a loose money market. It is estimated that the central bank will conduct net injections of 4,000 billion through open - market operations and outright reverse repurchases in July. After comprehensively considering the five - channel changes, the estimated excess deposit reserve ratio in July is 1.3% [72] Main Conclusion - After the end of the quarter, the money market will loosen, and it is expected that the money market interest rates will decline seasonally in July. Historical data shows that in recent years, the volatility of the money market has decreased, and the inter - bank overnight repurchase rates mostly decline in July. The average monthly change of R001 in July in the past five years was - 9BP, and that of R007 was - 11BP [73][76]