纯苯：苯乙烯风险管理日报-20250717

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Fundamentally, the near - term pure benzene surplus pattern remains unchanged, but downstream new production news strengthens the expectation of improved future demand. Styrene ports have significantly accumulated inventory, with large traders starting to sell near - month goods this week, causing the near - month basis to weaken rapidly. Also, there have been frequent news of styrene plant overhauls this week, disturbing market sentiment. Against the backdrop of weakening crude oil, both pure benzene and styrene futures show a weakening and oscillating trend [4]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - Price Forecast: The monthly price forecast for pure benzene is 5800 - 6400 yuan/ton, and for styrene is 6900 - 7500 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility of styrene is 29.40%, and its historical percentile over 3 years is 85.8% [3]. - Hedging Strategies: - Inventory Management: For high finished - product inventory and concerns about styrene price decline, it is recommended to short styrene futures (EB2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 7250 - 7350 yuan/ton and sell call options (EB2509C7500) with a 50% ratio at 60 - 90 yuan [3]. - Procurement Management: For low procurement standing inventory, to prevent cost increases from styrene price hikes, it is recommended to buy styrene futures (EB2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 7050 - 7150 yuan/ton and sell put options (EB2509P7100) with a 75% ratio at 90 - 120 yuan [3]. 3.2 Market News and Influencing Factors - Positive Factors: There were market rumors yesterday that the POSM unit of Zhejiang Petrochemical had a malfunction, resulting in a loss of 10,000 tons of styrene production. Jieyang Petrochemical's styrene plant will start an overhaul at the end of August, expected to last for half a month [5]. - Negative Factors: As of July 14, 2025, the styrene inventory at Jiangsu ports was 138,500 tons, an increase of 27,000 tons or 24.22% from the previous period. This week, styrene inventory has significantly increased, and large industrial traders have started to sell near - month goods, improving near - end liquidity. Crude oil prices have been oscillating weakly this week, weakening cost support. The latest production schedules of three major white - goods have been significantly revised down compared to the previous period, and the terminal consumption demand for styrene in the third quarter is pessimistically expected [6][8]. 3.3 Basis and Spread Changes - Pure Benzene Basis: On July 17, 2025, the basis of East China - BZ03 was - 202 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan from the previous day), East China - BZ04 was - 188 yuan/ton (up 19 yuan), East China - BZ05 was - 200 yuan/ton (down 5 yuan), and East China - BZ06 was - 195 yuan/ton [9]. - Styrene Basis: On July 17, 2025, the basis of East China - EB07 was 260 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day), East China - EB08 was 236 yuan/ton (up 59 yuan), East China - EB09 was 299 yuan/ton (up 42 yuan), and East China - EB10 was 353 yuan/ton [9]. - Industry Chain Spreads: Various spreads in the pure benzene - styrene industry chain have changed. For example, the styrene spot - pure benzene spot spread decreased by 85 yuan/ton to 1450 yuan/ton [9]. 3.4 Industry Chain Price Changes - Crude Oil and Related Products: On July 17, 2025, the price of Brent crude oil was 68.71 US dollars/barrel, unchanged from the previous day. The prices of some related products such as naphtha CFR Japan, ethylene CFR Northeast Asia, etc., also showed different degrees of change [10]. - Pure Benzene and Styrene: The prices of pure benzene and styrene in different markets and futures contracts have generally declined. For example, the pure benzene East China market price dropped by 40 yuan/ton to 5920 yuan/ton, and the styrene East China price dropped by 120 yuan/ton to 7400 yuan/ton [11]. - Downstream Products: The prices and profits of downstream products such as caprolactam, phenol, aniline, etc., also showed different trends. For example, the EPS profit in East China increased by 110.4 yuan/ton to 429 yuan/ton [11].