Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the document regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals including copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, casting aluminum alloy, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate. It provides trading strategies based on market trends, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors for each metal [2][8][17]. - For each metal, the analysis includes market review (both futures and spot markets), relevant news, logical analysis of market movements, and corresponding trading strategies [2][8][17]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Copper - Market Review: Night - session of SHFE copper 2508 contract closed at 77,840 yuan/ton, down 0.15%, with SHFE copper index reducing positions by 1,809 lots to 497,000 lots. In the spot market, copper prices declined in East, South, and North China, with different trends in spot premiums [2]. - Important News: Rumors of Powell's dismissal caused market volatility. In May 2025, global refined copper supply had a surplus of 84,200 tons. Peru lifted a two - week blockade on a major copper transport route. Antofagasta's copper production increased 11% year - on - year in H1 2025 [3]. - Logical Analysis: The 232 tariff is due on August 1st. LME copper inventory is increasing. The domestic smelter output will remain high in July and August. Market purchasing is mainly for immediate needs and in a wait - and - see mode [4]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term trading can be conducted with high - selling and low - buying within a range [14]. Alumina - Market Review: Alumina 2509 contract decreased by 50 yuan to 3,089 yuan/ton, with positions decreasing by 14,701 lots to 407,500 lots. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [8]. - Important News: National unified market construction was emphasized. There were spot transactions in different regions. Alumina inventory increased by 11,000 tons to 3.188 million tons this week [9][10]. - Logical Analysis: Alumina production capacity is stable, but output is rising. The supply - demand pattern will shift from tight balance to structural surplus in July. The import window around 3,200 yuan is the upper pressure for price rebound [11]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term trading can be conducted with high - selling and low - buying within a range. For now, wait and see for arbitrage and options [14][15]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Market Review: SHFE aluminum 2508 contract rose 25 yuan to 20,455 yuan/ton, with positions increasing by 5,825 lots to 633,800 lots. Spot prices in different regions increased [17]. - Important News: Chinese aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 12,000 tons. There were rumors about Powell's dismissal. The decline in housing completion area in June narrowed [17][18]. - Logical Analysis: Macro - events may cause overseas aluminum price fluctuations. Fundamentals have negative feedback. Aluminum consumption in the off - season may not be too weak [19]. - Trading Strategy: Aluminum prices will be under short - term pressure and fluctuate. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [20][21]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - Market Review: Casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 35 yuan to 19,845 yuan/ton, with positions decreasing by 106 lots to 9,969 lots. Spot prices were stable [23]. - Important News: In June 2025, the weighted average full cost of China's casting aluminum alloy (ADC12) industry increased by 14 yuan/ton compared to May, with a theoretical loss of 41 yuan/ton [23]. - Logical Analysis: Supply is stable, but demand is weak. Aluminum alloy futures prices will mainly follow the cost and aluminum price trends [24]. - Trading Strategy: The price will be under pressure at high levels. Consider arbitrage when the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum price is between - 200 and - 1,000 yuan, and consider cash - and - carry arbitrage when the price difference between futures and spot is over 400 yuan. Wait and see for options [25]. Zinc - Market Review: SHFE zinc 2509 rose 0.55% to 22,120 yuan/ton, with positions in the SHFE zinc index decreasing by 8,334 lots to 223,300 lots. Spot market transactions were mainly for immediate needs, with weak premiums [28]. - Important News: As of July 17th, SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory increased to 93,500 tons. Vedanta's zinc concentrate metal production in Q2 2025 increased by 7% year - on - year [29]. - Logical Analysis: Domestic zinc supply is increasing, and consumption is in the off - season, with inventory piling up. Zinc prices may be under pressure [30]. - Trading Strategy: Due to macro - sentiment and capital - side influence, zinc prices may fluctuate. Long - term, short positions can be taken on price rebounds. Buy put options for arbitrage. Wait and see for options [31]. Lead - Market Review: SHFE lead 2508 fell 0.3% to 16,875 yuan/ton, with positions in the SHFE lead index increasing by 3,476 lots to 100,000 lots. Spot market transactions were not optimistic [33]. - Important News: As of July 17th, SMM's five - region lead ingot inventory increased to 69,000 tons. Middle - East will impose different levels of tariffs on Chinese lead - acid battery enterprises [34]. - Logical Analysis: Secondary lead production is in the red, and domestic primary lead smelting has maintenance in July. The lead - battery peak season is approaching, with improving consumption [37]. - Trading Strategy: Try long positions with a small position considering secondary lead cost support and peak - season expectations. Sell put options for arbitrage. Wait and see for options [38]. Nickel - Market Review: The main SHFE nickel contract NI2509 fell 740 yuan to 119,970 yuan/ton, with index positions increasing by 4,627 lots. Spot premiums showed different trends [40]. - Important News: In May 2025, global nickel supply had a surplus of 40,800 tons. From January to May 2025, the surplus was 165,300 tons. Philippines' nickel ore exports to Indonesia are expected to increase [41]. - Logical Analysis: Market concerns about US tariffs resurfaced. Refined nickel supply and demand are weak in the off - season, with stable and slightly increasing inventory. Prices will fluctuate weakly [42]. - Trading Strategy: Prices will decline with fluctuations. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell deep - out - of - the - money call options [43][45][46]. Stainless Steel - Market Review: The main SS2509 contract rose 40 yuan to 12,730 yuan/ton, with index positions decreasing by 776 lots. Spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products are given [48]. - Important News: A nickel - iron factory in East China sold nickel - iron. National stainless - steel social inventory decreased by 1.69% week - on - week [49]. - Logical Analysis: Stainless - steel demand is not optimistic, with high inventory pressure. The cost has increased, and prices will oscillate at a high level [50]. - Trading Strategy: Prices will oscillate at a high level. Wait and see for arbitrage [51][52]. Industrial Silicon - Market Review: Industrial silicon futures fluctuated narrowly, closing at 8,745 yuan/ton, up 0.75%. Spot prices were stable [54][55]. - Important News: The US launched 232 investigations on imported drones and polysilicon and its derivatives [56][58]. - Logical Analysis: Leading manufacturers' production decreased by 20,000 tons in July. If leading manufacturers do not resume production, the supply - demand will be balanced. Prices may be strong in the short - term [59]. - Trading Strategy: Adopt a short - term long - bias view. Close the long - polysilicon and short - industrial - silicon arbitrage strategy. There is no option strategy [60]. Polysilicon - Market Review: The main polysilicon futures contract rose 7.49% to 45,700 yuan/ton. Spot prices increased [61]. - Important News: A photovoltaic project's component procurement bid was announced [62]. - Logical Analysis: Polysilicon price increases can be transmitted downstream. Market sentiment is positive, and prices may be strong in the short - term [63]. - Trading Strategy: Prices will be strong in the short - term [65]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Review: The main 2509 contract rose 1,640 yuan to 67,960 yuan/ton, with index positions increasing by 17,801 lots and Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFEX) warehouse receipts decreasing by 416 to 10,239 tons. Spot prices were stable [66]. - Important News: Three Australian lithium mines have shut down. Zangge Mining's lithium - related subsidiary stopped production [67]. - Logical Analysis: Supply - side disturbances are frequent. Demand in July is not weak. Prices will oscillate at a high level in the short - term and may decline in Q4 [68]. - Trading Strategy: Prices will oscillate at a high level in the short - term. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell deep - out - of - the - money put options [71].
银河期货有色金属衍生品日报-20250717
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-07-17 12:16