Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals and precious metals. For precious metals, they are expected to maintain high - level oscillations due to market uncertainties. For copper, the price is under pressure due to supply - related factors. Alumina's supply - demand pattern is evolving from tight balance to structural surplus. For electrolytic aluminum, the price is short - term under pressure, and the consumption off - season may not be overly pessimistic. The casting aluminum alloy price is mainly influenced by cost and aluminum price. Zinc price may be pressured by fundamentals. Lead price has potential to rise due to supply - demand changes. Nickel price is weak but with cost support. Stainless steel price is under pressure due to supply - demand imbalance. Industrial silicon price is expected to be strong in the short - term. Polysilicon price is also expected to be strong. Lithium carbonate price will be in high - level oscillations in the short - term and may decline in the fourth quarter [2][4][10][13][18][25][29][33][37][40][43][47][54]. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - Market Review: London gold rose 0.68% to $3345.985/oz, London silver rose 0.49% to $37.87/oz. The US dollar index fell 0.23% to 98.39, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.4488%, and the RMB exchange rate rose 0.05% to 7.177 [2]. - Important Information: Trump's rumor of firing Powell caused market turmoil, and US June PPI data was lower than expected. The Fed's economic outlook is neutral to slightly pessimistic, and the probability of interest rate changes is given [2]. - Logic Analysis: PPI data eased CPI concerns, but inflation and Fed's rate - cut timing uncertainties remain. Precious metals are expected to oscillate at high levels [4]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: Try long positions on dips near the 5 - day moving average; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [5]. Copper - Market Review: Night - session Shanghai copper 2508 contract fell 0.01% to 77950 yuan/ton, LME copper fell 0.21% to $9637/ton. LME and COMEX inventories increased [7]. - Important Information: Rumors about Powell's dismissal affected the market. In May 2025, there was a global refined copper supply surplus. A copper transport route in Peru was unblocked, and a Chilean company's copper production increased [7][8]. - Logic Analysis: Supply is relatively sufficient, price is pressured, and market procurement is mainly for rigid demand [10]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: Hold short positions; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [10]. Alumina - Market Review: Night - session alumina 2509 contract fell 53 yuan to 3086 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions were mostly stable or slightly increased [12]. - Important Information: Related meetings emphasized market construction. There were domestic spot transactions, and inventory and production data showed changes [12][13]. - Logic Analysis: Supply - demand pattern is changing from tight balance to surplus, and the price is under pressure [13]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: Oscillate under pressure in the short - term, high - sell and low - buy in the range; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [14]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Market Review: Night - session Shanghai aluminum 2508 contract rose 15 yuan to 20445 yuan/ton, and spot prices in different regions increased [16]. - Important Information: Aluminum inventories decreased, and there were rumors about Powell's dismissal. Housing completion data was provided [18]. - Trading Logic: Macro events may affect overseas aluminum prices, and the domestic market focuses on policy expectations. The supply - demand situation is complex, and the consumption off - season may not be too bad [18]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: Aluminum price is under short - term pressure, beware of price fluctuations caused by Powell's situation; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [19]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - Market Review: Night - session casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 35 yuan to 19845 yuan/ton, and spot prices were mostly stable [23]. - Important Information: Production, inventory, and cost data of casting aluminum alloy were provided [23][24]. - Trading Logic: Supply has issues with actual sales, and demand is weak. The price is mainly affected by cost and aluminum price [25]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: Be under pressure at high levels; Arbitrage: Consider arbitrage when the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is between - 200 and - 1000 yuan, or when the spot - futures price difference is over 400 yuan; Options: Wait and see [26]. Zinc - Market Review: LME zinc fell 0.07% to $2699.5/ton, Shanghai zinc 2509 rose 0.25% to 22055 yuan/ton. Spot trading was mainly among traders [29]. - Important Information: A company's zinc concentrate production increased in the second quarter of 2025 [29]. - Logic Analysis: Supply is increasing, consumption is in the off - season, and the price may be pressured [29]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: The price may fluctuate due to macro factors. Partially close profitable short positions and re - enter short at high prices; Arbitrage: Buy put options or sell call options; Options: Wait and see [30]. Lead - Market Review: LME lead fell 1.15% to $1978/ton, Shanghai lead 2508 fell 0.06% to 16885 yuan/ton. Spot trading was poor [32][33]. - Important Information: There was an anti - dumping investigation on Chinese lead - acid batteries in the Middle East [33]. - Logic Analysis: Supply is difficult to increase, and consumption is improving [33]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: Try long positions lightly due to cost support and consumption peak expectations; Arbitrage: Sell put options; Options: Wait and see [34]. Nickel - Market Review: LME nickel fell to $14990/ton, Shanghai nickel fell to 119640 yuan/ton. Spot premiums changed [36]. - Important Information: In May 2025, there was a global nickel supply surplus. There were concerns about US tariffs, and Philippine nickel exports to Indonesia were expected to increase [36][37]. - Logic Analysis: The market is affected by tariff concerns, and the price is weak with cost support [37]. - Trading Strategy: No specific strategy provided in the given context. Stainless Steel - Market Review: The main contract of stainless steel fell to 12680 yuan/ton, and spot prices were provided [38]. - Important Information: Stainless steel inventory decreased in Foshan, and Indian stainless steel consumption data was provided [39]. - Logic Analysis: Supply - demand imbalance leads to price pressure [40]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: Sell on rebounds; Arbitrage: Wait and see [41]. Industrial Silicon - Market Review: The industrial silicon futures contract fell 0.91% to 8685 yuan/ton, and some spot prices rose [43]. - Important Information: The US launched 232 investigations on imported drones and polysilicon [43]. - Comprehensive Analysis: The overall supply in July may decrease, and the market may reach a balance. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term [43]. - Strategy: Unilateral: Be bullish in the short - term; Arbitrage: Stop the profit of the strategy of going long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon; Options: None [44][45]. Polysilicon - Market Review: The polysilicon futures contract rose 1.50% to 42945 yuan/ton, and spot prices increased [47]. - Important Information: There was a photovoltaic project component procurement bid [47]. - Comprehensive Analysis: Market rumors focus on "anti - involution" and cost - based sales. The price increase can be passed on to downstream, and the price is expected to be strong [47][48]. - Strategy: Unilateral: Be strong in the short - term; Arbitrage: Stop the profit of the strategy of going long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon; Options: Wait and see [49]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Review: The main contract of lithium carbonate rose to 66420 yuan/ton, and spot prices increased [52]. - Important Information: The Asian lithium market faces downward pressure, and there were news about lithium mine projects [53]. - Logic Analysis: Supply - side disturbances prevent deep price drops in the short - term, and the price may decline in the fourth quarter [54]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: Oscillate at high levels in the short - term, beware of policy risks; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Sell deep - out - of - the - money put options [56].
有色和贵金属每日早盘观察-20250717
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-07-17 12:15