2025年6月社零数据点评：6月社零整体同增4.8%，家具、家电等品类增速较快

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - In June, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.8% year-on-year, reaching 42,287 billion yuan. Excluding automobiles, the total retail sales were 37,649 billion yuan, also up by 4.8% year-on-year [5][6] - The growth rate of retail sales in essential consumer goods remains stable, with significant increases in categories such as grain and oil food (+8.7%) and daily necessities (+7.8%). However, beverages (-4.4%) and tobacco and alcohol (-0.7%) saw declines [16][29] - In the optional consumption category, jewelry (+6.1%) and communication equipment (+13.9%) showed strong growth, while cosmetics (-2.3%) and clothing and footwear (+1.9%) had modest increases [26][32] - Notably, retail sales in the home appliance and furniture categories grew significantly, with furniture sales up by 28.7% and home appliances by 32.4% [34][36] Summary by Sections Overall Data - The total retail sales of consumer goods in June reached 42,287 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8%. Urban and rural retail sales were 36,559 billion yuan and 5,728 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 4.8% and 4.5% [5][6] Consumption Types - Retail sales in essential goods showed robust growth, while optional goods had mixed results. The total retail sales for limited enterprises in June were 18,327 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5.0% [9][12] - The retail sales for essential goods categories included grain and oil food (+8.7%), daily necessities (+7.8%), while beverages (-4.4%) and tobacco and alcohol (-0.7%) declined [16][29] - In optional consumption, jewelry and communication equipment categories performed well, with growth rates of 6.1% and 13.9%, respectively [26][32] - The home appliance and furniture sectors saw remarkable growth, with furniture sales increasing by 28.7% and home appliances by 32.4% [34][36]