银河期货油脂日报-20250717

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View of the Report - Short-term, the overall trend of the oil market is expected to be a narrow-range oscillation [12] Summary by Directory Part 1: Data Analysis - Spot Prices and Basis: The closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil on July 17, 2025, were 8072, 8796, and 9440 respectively, with price changes of 30, 74, and -30. The basis of each variety showed different degrees of change [3] - Monthly Spread: The 9 - 1 monthly spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 42, 20, and 66 respectively, with changes of 0, 2, and -6 [3] - Cross - Variety Spread: The 09 - contract Y - P spread was -724 (a decrease of 44), the OI - Y spread was 1368 (a decrease of 60), the OI - P spread was 644 (a decrease of 104), and the oil - meal ratio was 2.66 (a decrease of 0.04) [3] - Import Profit: The 8 - month shipment of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia had a negative profit of -119, and the 8 - month shipment of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam had a negative profit of -797 [3] - Weekly Commercial Inventory: As of the 28th week of 2025, the commercial inventories of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 106.6, 56.3, and 70.6 million tons respectively, with different changes compared to the previous week and the same period last year [3] Part 2: Fundamental Analysis - International Market: Indonesia's plantation fund expects the palm oil tax revenue in 2025 to be about 30 trillion Indonesian rupiah. Indonesia is researching to increase the biodiesel blending ratio to 50%, and the research is expected to be completed by the end of the year [5] - Domestic Market - Palm Oil: As of July 11, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 56.3 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.79 million tons (a growth rate of 5.21%). The import profit inversion has narrowed. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillatory, and one can consider buying on dips [5] - Domestic Market - Soybean Oil: As of July 11, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 104.94 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.97 million tons (a growth rate of 2.91%). The short - term trend is expected to be oscillatory [6] - Domestic Market - Rapeseed Oil: As of July 11, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 70.6 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.3 million tons. The European rapeseed oil import profit inversion has narrowed. The short - term trend is expected to be a large - range oscillation, and one should continue to pay attention to rapeseed and rapeseed oil purchases and policy changes [10] Part 3: Trading Strategy - Single - Side: Short - term, the oil market is expected to oscillate in a narrow range [12] - Arbitrage: Consider partial profit - taking for YP09 spread narrowing, and continue to consider shorting on highs after the spread widens [13] - Options: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [14] Part 4: Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including spot basis charts of various oils, monthly spread charts, and cross - variety spread charts, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Bangcheng, and WIND [17][20]