Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-17 13:04Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the zinc market is currently in a complex situation. On the macro - front, the US June PPI hit a nearly one - year low, and Trump's tariff announcements add uncertainty. Fundamentally, zinc supply growth is accelerating due to increased zinc ore imports, rising processing fees, and improved smelter profits. Demand is in a seasonal slump, with lower processing enterprise operating rates. Zinc prices are in a wide - range adjustment, and both domestic and overseas inventories are rising, putting pressure on zinc prices. Technically, the market is in a range - bound oscillation. It is recommended to either wait and see or consider short - selling at high prices [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract is 22,130 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread is 15 yuan, unchanged. - The LME three - month zinc quote is 2,701.5 dollars/ton, down 31 dollars. - The total position of Shanghai Zinc is 231,620 lots, down 4,884 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc is 8,851 lots, down 3,193 lots. - Shanghai Zinc warehouse receipts are 12,161 tons, up 977 tons; the SHFE inventory is 49,981 tons, up 4,617 tons; the LME inventory is 118,600 tons, up 5,200 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,110 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 21,710 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. - The basis of the ZN main contract is - 20 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 9.95 dollars/ton, down 4.34 dollars. - The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 16,900 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,700 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons. - The global zinc ore production is 1.0075 million tons, down 4,300 tons; domestic refined zinc production is 583,000 tons, up 7,000 tons. - Zinc ore imports are 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Refined zinc imports are 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; refined zinc exports are 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons. - Zinc social inventory is 74,400 tons, up 1,900 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The production of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons. - The new housing construction area is 231.8361 million square meters, up 53.4777 million square meters; the housing completion area is 183.8514 million square meters, up 27.3729 million square meters. - Automobile production is 2.642 million vehicles, up 38,000 vehicles; air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for zinc is 14.9%, down 0.88%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for zinc is 14.9%, down 0.88%. - The 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money option for zinc is 8.44%, down 0.78%; the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money option for zinc is 12.74%, down 0.01% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - The US June PPI year - on - year increase was 2.3%, significantly lower than the expected 2.5%, the lowest since September 2024, with a month - on - month increase of 0%. - Trump said he plans to impose "slightly over 10%" tariffs on at least 100 countries and mentioned possible trade agreements [3]. 3.8观点总结 - On the macro - front, the US June PPI hit a nearly one - year low, and Trump's tariff announcements add uncertainty. - Fundamentally, zinc supply growth is accelerating due to increased zinc ore imports, rising processing fees, and improved smelter profits. Demand is in a seasonal slump, with lower processing enterprise operating rates. - Technically, the market is in a range - bound oscillation. It is recommended to either wait and see or consider short - selling at high prices [3].