Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-17 13:04Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Alumina: The fundamentals are in a stage of relatively high supply and stable demand. The previous optimistic sentiment in the market has cooled, and it is gradually returning to the reality of fundamentals. It is recommended to lightly short on rallies, controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The fundamentals are in a situation of slightly increasing supply and weak demand. The upside space may be limited due to the off - season and trade uncertainties. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a range - bound manner, controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - Casting Aluminum Alloy: The fundamentals are in a situation of weak supply and demand. However, due to the tight supply of scrap aluminum, the cost support is strong. The upside space may be limited in the short term. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a range - bound manner, controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Price and Spread: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 20,415 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the closing price of the Alumina futures main contract is 3,089 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan; the closing price of the Casting Aluminum Alloy main contract is 19,845 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan. The LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quotation is 2,575.50 US dollars/ton, down 7.50 US dollars [2]. - Position and Inventory: The main contract position of Shanghai Aluminum increases by 74,084 hands to 268,542 hands; the main contract position of Alumina decreases by 15,471 hands to 223,893 hands; the main contract position of Casting Aluminum Alloy decreases by 114 hands to 8,279 hands. The LME aluminum inventory is 423,525 tons, up 6,550 tons; the Shanghai Aluminum SHFE inventory is 103,197 tons, up 8,565 tons [2]. Spot Market - Price: The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum is 20,570 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the average price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum is 20,550 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the Alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 3,150 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Basis: The basis of Casting Aluminum Alloy is 155 yuan/ton, down 555 yuan; the basis of Electrolytic Aluminum is 155 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; the basis of Alumina is 61 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - Production and Utilization: The Alumina production is 774.93 million tons, up 26.13 million tons; the Alumina capacity utilization rate is 80.93%, down 1.17 percentage points [2]. - Supply and Demand: The demand for Alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) is 720.02 million tons, up 26.32 million tons; the supply - demand balance of Alumina is - 25.26 million tons, down 15.33 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - Supply and Inventory: The electrolytic aluminum social inventory is 44.80 million tons, up 3.60 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum total capacity is 4,520.70 million tons, up 0.50 million tons [2]. - Production and Trade: The electrolytic aluminum production is stable with a slight increase; the aluminum products production is 587.37 million tons, up 11.17 million tons; the export of unforged aluminum and aluminum products is 48.90 million tons, down 6.10 million tons [2]. Downstream and Application - Production: The aluminum alloy production is 166.90 million tons, up 2.40 million tons; the automobile production is 280.86 million vehicles, up 16.66 million vehicles [2]. - Indicator: The National Housing Prosperity Index is 93.60, down 0.11 [2]. Option Situation - Volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum is 8.74%, down 0.08 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum is 9.28%, down 0.06 percentage points [2]. - Ratio: The put - call ratio of Shanghai Aluminum options is 1.11, down 0.0362 [2]. Industry News - Domestic: From July 1 - 13, the retail sales of the national passenger car market are 57.1 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 7% and a month - on - month decrease of 5%; the retail sales of the new energy passenger car market are 33.2 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 26% and a month - on - month decrease of 4% [2]. - International: The US PPI in June is flat month - on - month, and the core PPI is also flat, with the smallest year - on - year increase since the end of 2023 [2].