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碳酸锂产业日报-20250717

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand of lithium carbonate remains weak, with high and continuously accumulating inventory. The market shows abnormal movements due to the information of suspended lithium resource exploitation by listed companies, but fundamental pressure still exists after the news fades. Short - term trading requires caution and risk control [2]. - The put - call ratio of option positions is 36.57%, a - 1.5477% month - on - month decrease. The call positions in the option market dominate, indicating a bullish sentiment, and the implied volatility slightly decreases. - Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD chart, the double lines are above the 0 - axis, and the red bars slightly expand. - The operation suggestion is to lightly short at high prices and pay attention to trading rhythm to control risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 67,960 yuan/ton, up 1,540 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 120,421 hands, down 4,072 hands; the position volume of the main contract is 363,676 hands, up 23,058 hands; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is 760 yuan/ton, unchanged; the warehouse receipts of GZEE are 11,203 hands, down 1 hand [2]. Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 64,950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 63,350 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 3,010 yuan/ton, down 1,490 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 698 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite is 5,535 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 1,759 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - Lithium carbonate production is 42,100 tons, down 5,800 tons; imports are 21,145.78 tons, down 7,190.11 tons; exports are 286.74 tons, down 447.55 tons; the operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 47%, down 6 percentage points; power battery production is 129,200 MWh, up 5,700 MWh; the price of lithium manganate is 28,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 49,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium cobalt oxide is 220,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type) in China is 144,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (622 power type) in China is 120,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type) in China is 125,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 55%, up 2 percentage points; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 30,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 49%, up 2 percentage points; the monthly production of new energy vehicles is 1,268,000, down 2,000; the monthly sales are 1,329,000, up 22,000; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles is 44.32%, up 0.33 percentage points; the cumulative sales are 6,937,000, up 1,993,000; the monthly export volume is 205,000, down 7,000; the cumulative export volume is 1,060,000, up 455,000; the 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 22.82%, up 0.86 percentage points; the 40 - day average volatility is 22.49%, up 0.61 percentage points [2]. Option Situation - The total call position is 178,316, up 13,582; the total put position is 65,218, up 2,418; the put - call ratio of total positions is 36.57%, down 1.5477 percentage points; the at - the - money IV implied volatility is 0.28%, down 0.0033 percentage points [2]. Industry News - The State Council Executive Meeting studied the implementation of key policy measures to strengthen the domestic large - cycle and listened to the report on standardizing the competition order of the new energy vehicle industry. It aims to promote the high - quality development of the new energy vehicle industry and standardize the competition order [2]. - According to the data of the Passenger Car Association, from July 1 - 13, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 571,000, a year - on - year increase of 7% and a month - on - month decrease of 5%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 1,147.3 million, a year - on - year increase of 11%. The retail sales of the national new energy passenger car market were 332,000, a year - on - year increase of 26% and a month - on - month decrease of 4%. The retail penetration rate of the new energy market was 58.1%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 580.1 million, a year - on - year increase of 33% [2]. - Zangge Mining announced at noon on July 17 that its wholly - owned subsidiary received a notice to immediately stop lithium resource development and utilization activities on July 16 [2].