瑞达期货不锈钢产业日报-20250717

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - On the raw material side, the Indonesian government's PNBP policy issuance restrictions increase the cost of nickel resource supply, but the production of nickel iron in Indonesia has rebounded significantly, and the price of nickel iron has dropped recently, weakening the support of raw material costs [2] - On the supply side, steel mills are under increasing pressure of cost inversion and are in a loss state across the board, forcing them to increase production cuts. Domestic anti - involution measures may accelerate the alleviation of the oversupply situation, and stainless steel production is expected to decline further [2] - On the demand side, it has entered the traditional consumption off - season, with increased macro - market uncertainties and continued pressure on export demand. Downstream buyers are hesitant, with poor acceptance of high - priced goods. The domestic inventory reduction is not satisfactory, and attention should be paid to the inventory reduction effect brought about by subsequent production cuts [2] - Technically, there is a reduction in positions and differences between long and short sides. Attention should be paid to the support of MA10, and short - term consolidation is expected. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless steel futures main contract is 12,730 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 60 yuan; the spread between the 08 - 09 contracts is 25 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 5 yuan [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 9,161 lots, a daily decrease of 595 lots; the position of the main contract is 104,645 lots [2] - The warehouse receipt quantity is 110,572 tons, a daily decrease of 300 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 304/2B cut - edge coils in Wuxi is 13,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The basis of the SS main contract is 250 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 25 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel iron output is 23,900 metal tons, an increase of 2,200 metal tons [2] - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,687.58 tons, a decrease of 1,058.97 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel iron is 848,200 tons, an increase of 31,300 tons [2] - The daily SMM1 nickel spot price is 120,450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,650 yuan; the national average price of nickel iron (7 - 10%) is 900 yuan/nickel point, unchanged [2] - The monthly output of Chinese ferrochrome is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7847 million tons, a decrease of 39,600 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 624,400 tons, an increase of 18,500 tons [2] - The monthly stainless steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 231.8361 million square meters, an increase of 53.4777 million square meters [2] - The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 246,000 units, a decrease of 10,400 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 110,000 units, a decrease of 10,000 units; the monthly output of excavators is 258,000 units, a decrease of 2,000 units [2] 3.6 Industry News - The US PPI in June had a year - on - year increase of 2.3%, significantly lower than the expected 2.5%, the lowest since September 2024, with a month - on - month increase of 0% [2] - Trump said that the countries receiving tariff letters are small in scale and trade volume, the US and India are close to reaching an agreement, and there may be an agreement with the EU [2] - Li Qiang proposed to study the implementation of key policies to strengthen the domestic large - cycle and standardize the competition order of the new energy vehicle industry [2]