Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-17 12:59Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The supply of polysilicon enterprises has generally increased, with some enterprises increasing production while others undergoing maintenance, and self - disciplined production cuts have not significantly affected capacity fluctuations. The demand may decline significantly due to the anti - involution meeting, but prices are gradually recovering. The production schedule of downstream PV modules has been reduced, and demand has weakened marginally. Silicon wafer enterprises' overall production decline is expected to end as profits stabilize, and cell enterprises also have production cut plans. The polysilicon demand side still faces great pressure. Last week's price increase gave most manufacturers a chance to turn losses into profits, but this is not normal, and most manufacturers will start a new round of hedging. Polysilicon inventory is at a high level. Currently, the downstream sales sentiment has improved, and overall production has increased. Pay attention to inventory data changes. The short - term market price is consolidating at a high level. Be vigilant against a rapid decline after the news hype is falsified. The polysilicon price continued to rise today, the main contract switched to 09, and trading volume continued to expand. Do not continue to chase high prices and can continue to arrange put options [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The main closing price of polysilicon is 45,700 yuan/ton, with a change of 2,755; the main position volume is 70,964 lots, a decrease of 819. The price difference between August and September for polysilicon is 235, a decrease of 115; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 36,955 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,695 [2] Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 45,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis is 2,555 yuan/ton, a decrease of 475. The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kg, an increase of 0.72. The average prices of cauliflower - shaped, dense, and re - fed polysilicon are 30 yuan/kg, 36 yuan/kg, and 33 yuan/kg respectively, all unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The main contract closing price of industrial silicon is 8,745 yuan/ton, an increase of 60; the spot price is 9,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 50. The monthly output of industrial silicon is 305,200 tons, an increase of 5,500. The monthly export volume is 52,919.65 tons, a decrease of 12,197.89 tons; the monthly import volume is 2,211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons. The total social inventory is 552,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 95,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume is 793 tons, a decrease of 161 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 5.04 US dollars/kg, an increase of 0.14; the monthly average import price is 2.19 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.14 [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 70,569,000 kilowatts, a decrease of 1,359,000 kilowatts. The average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, an increase of 0.01. The monthly export volume of PV modules is 103,399,980 pieces, an increase of 19,610,660 pieces; the monthly import volume is 12,098,490 pieces, a decrease of 8,021,950 pieces, and the monthly average import price is 0.33 US dollars/piece, an increase of 0.04. The PV industry's comprehensive price index (SPI) for polysilicon is 22.29, an increase of 0.62 [2] Industry News - At the Third Chain Expo Guangdong International Supply Chain Cooperation Conference on July 16th, Zhuang Lecong, a second - level inspector of the Guangdong Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology, said that Guangdong Province will focus on industries, seize opportunities, and accelerate the construction of a modern industrial system supported by advanced manufacturing. It will transform and upgrade traditional industries, develop industries such as embodied robots, and innovate and develop new energy storage and PV industries [2]