下游需求疲软

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The U.S. dollar index is expected to weaken, which supports the copper price. The processing fees of copper smelters have stopped falling and stabilized, and the supply shortage expectation has eased. However, downstream demand is weak, and the overall procurement sentiment is sluggish. After the enthusiasm of arbitrageurs to rush to the U.S. cools down, inventories in other regions except the U.S. have changed from destocking to stockpiling, putting pressure on the copper price. The 50% copper tariff in the U.S. has a small impact on the market for now, but if it is actually implemented, it may cause the market to continue to decline [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The copper price opened low and moved high during the day but weakened. The U.S. dollar index is expected to weaken, supporting the copper price. The processing fees of copper smelters have stopped falling and stabilized, and the supply shortage expectation has eased. The apparent consumption of electrolytic copper increased by 6.30% in May compared with the previous month. In June, the cable operating rate declined, and the air - conditioning industry entered the off - season. The downstream procurement sentiment is weak, but emerging industries such as new energy perform well. After the enthusiasm of arbitrageurs to rush to the U.S. cools down, inventories in other regions except the U.S. have changed from destocking to stockpiling, putting pressure on the copper price. The 50% copper tariff in the U.S. has a small impact on the market for now, but if it is actually implemented, it may cause the market to continue to decline [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures opened low and moved high during the day but weakened, closing at 77840. The number of long orders of the top 20 decreased by 4798 to 103634 hands, and the number of short orders decreased by 1478 to 102315 hands. Spot: The spot premium in East China is 55 yuan/ton, and in South China is 65 yuan/ton. On July 14, 2025, the LME official price is 9615 dollars/ton, and the spot premium is - 52 dollars/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - SHFE copper inventory is 4.21 tons, a decrease of 0.81 tons from the previous period. As of July 14, the copper inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone is 6.93 tons, an increase of 0.22 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory is 12.22 tons, a slight increase of 1150 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory is 23.94 short tons, an increase of 1171 short tons from the previous period [7]