ASML25Q2跟踪报告：25Q3收入指引不及预期，25、26年指引较为保守

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook for the industry, with a recommendation to avoid due to weakening fundamentals and expected underperformance of the industry index compared to the benchmark [4]. Core Insights - ASML's Q2 2025 revenue reached €76.92 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 23.2% but a slight quarter-on-quarter decline of 0.6%, with new orders totaling €55.41 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 0.5% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 40.8% [1][4]. - The company has adjusted its revenue guidance for 2025 to €32.5 billion, previously estimated between €30-35 billion, indicating a cautious approach for 2026 due to macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties [4][20]. - The report highlights that AI is a key driver for growth in both storage and logic sectors, with expectations of a 15% revenue growth in 2025, supported by increased production capacity to meet AI demands [20][21]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q2 2025 revenue was €76.92 billion, with equipment revenue at €55.96 billion and service revenue at €20.96 billion, exceeding guidance expectations [1][18]. - Gross margin for Q2 2025 was 53.7%, surpassing the expected range of 50%-53% due to better-than-expected contributions from upgrades and tariff impacts [1][18]. Orders and Revenue Guidance - Q3 2025 revenue guidance is set between €74-79 billion, with a midpoint indicating a year-on-year increase of 2.5% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 0.5% [4][22]. - The company anticipates a cautious revenue outlook for 2026, with potential declines due to increased uncertainties in macroeconomic conditions and geopolitical factors [4][20]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the EUV segment is expected to grow by approximately 30% in 2025, driven by increased production capacity from advanced customers [20][25]. - The revenue from the Chinese mainland is projected to exceed 25% of total revenue in 2025, despite a year-on-year decline of 35.2% in Q2 2025 [20][29]. Technological Developments - Significant progress has been made in Low NA and High NA EUV technologies, with the NXE:3800E achieving a production rate of 220 WPH, enhancing customer capabilities in advanced nodes [23][24]. - The report emphasizes the importance of EUV technology in meeting the growing demands for advanced semiconductor manufacturing, particularly in the context of AI-driven applications [20][21].