台积电25Q2跟踪报告：25Q2业绩及Q3指引均超预期，上修全年收入增速预期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the semiconductor industry, with an upgrade in the revenue growth forecast for the year 2025 to approximately 30% [3][26]. Core Insights - TSMC's Q2 2025 revenue reached $30.07 billion, exceeding guidance, driven by strong demand for 3/5nm technologies, with a year-on-year growth of 44.4% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 17.8% [1][20]. - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 58.6%, close to the upper limit of guidance, reflecting effective cost management despite some dilution from overseas operations and currency fluctuations [1][20]. - The company expects Q3 2025 revenue to be between $31.8 billion and $33 billion, indicating a year-on-year growth of 38% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 8% [3][22]. - TSMC's capital expenditure for Q2 2025 was $9.63 billion, with a full-year guidance of $38 billion to $42 billion, indicating a commitment to expanding capacity in response to strong demand, particularly in AI and HPC sectors [4][22]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - TSMC reported a Q2 2025 revenue of $30.07 billion, with a gross margin of 58.6% and a net profit of $12.93 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 61% [1][20]. - The operating profit margin was 49.6%, exceeding guidance, with a return on equity (ROE) of 34.7% [1][20]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenue by technology node: 3nm (24%), 5nm (36%), and 7nm (14%), with 74% of revenue coming from advanced processes [2][20]. - Revenue by platform: HPC (60%), smartphones (27%), IoT (5%), automotive (5%), and data communication equipment (1%) [2][20]. Guidance and Outlook - The guidance for Q3 2025 indicates strong revenue growth, with an expected gross margin of 55.5% to 57.5% [3][22]. - TSMC anticipates a significant increase in AI-related revenue, projecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of nearly 45% from AI acceleration chips from 2024 to 2028 [4][22]. Global Expansion Plans - TSMC plans to invest $165 billion in advanced semiconductor manufacturing in Arizona, including multiple fabs and a major R&D center [28][29]. - The company is also expanding its operations in Japan and Europe, focusing on specialized technologies and automotive applications [29][30]. Technology Development - The N2 and A16 technologies are expected to meet the growing demand for high-efficiency computing, with N2 projected to enter mass production in the second half of 2025 [31][32]. - TSMC's advanced packaging strategy is aligned with its advanced process development, ensuring a comprehensive approach to meet customer needs [45].