瑞达期货国债期货日报-20250717

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The current combination of "weak fundamental recovery + low inflation" remains unchanged, and the overall loose capital under the central bank's care still provides bullish support for the bond market. In the short term, the upside and downside space of yields is limited, and it is expected that Treasury bond futures will continue to fluctuate. Given that there is no directional turn in the policy environment and fundamentals, investors are advised to maintain a certain position [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - Closing Prices and Trading Volumes: T, TF, and TS main contracts' closing prices increased by 0.02%, 0.02%, and 0.01% respectively, while the TL main contract decreased by 0.02%. The trading volumes of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts decreased by 1203, 616, 81, and 2014 respectively [2] - Futures Spreads: Some spreads such as TL2512 - 2509, T2512 - 2509, and TF2512 - 2509 increased, while TS2512 - 2509 remained unchanged [2] - Futures Positions: T, TS, and TL main contract positions decreased, while TF main contract positions increased. The net short positions of T, TF, and TS increased, while that of TL decreased [2] 3.2 CTD Bond Data - The net prices of some CTD bonds such as 250007.IB, 240020.IB, and 250006.IB increased, while those of 220010.IB and 210005.IB decreased [2] 3.3 Treasury Bond Active Bond Yields - The yields of 1 - year bonds decreased by 0.50bp, while those of 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year bonds increased by 0.75bp, 0.64bp, and 0.40bp respectively [2] 3.4 Short - term Interest Rates - The silver - pledged overnight rate increased by 4.93bp, while the Shibor overnight rate decreased by 0.30bp. The silver - pledged 7 - day and 14 - day rates decreased by 2.33bp and 6.02bp respectively, and the Shibor 7 - day rate remained unchanged while the Shibor 14 - day rate decreased by 0.60bp [2] 3.5 LPR Rates - The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged [2] 3.6 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale was 4505 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 900 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 - day operations [2] 3.7 Industry News - In June, the industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.8% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.8% year - on - year. In the first half of 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 2.8% year - on - year, and the national real estate development investment decreased by 11.2% year - on - year [2] - In the first half of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 22.83 trillion yuan, 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. At the end of June 2025, the stock of social financing scale was 430.22 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.9% [2] - In the first half of the year, China's total import and export value to the United States was 2.08 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 9.3% [2] 3.8 Key Data to Focus On - On July 17th at 20:30, pay attention to the US retail sales month - on - month rate for June and the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending July 12th [3]