专题报告：化工品种又双叒叕上新：丙烯

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Propylene is an important basic raw material in the petrochemical industry, with China emerging as the world's largest producer and consumer center. The industry has witnessed significant growth in production capacity, and the demand is mainly concentrated in Northeast Asia, especially China. The trade shows a regional characteristic, and the domestic import volume is expected to decline further [17][19][24] Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. What is Propylene? - Propylene (C3H6) is an important basic raw material in the petrochemical industry. It is a colorless, hydrocarbon - scented gas at room temperature, with specific physical and chemical properties and is classified as a Class II hazardous chemical [4] II. Propylene's Uses - Propylene is mainly used to produce polypropylene, accounting for about 62% of downstream demand, with wide - ranging applications. Other downstream products include epoxy propane (7%), PP powder (6%), acrylonitrile (7%), phenol - ketone (5%), acrylic acid and its esters (4%), and butanol - octanol (7%), which are used in various industries [5][6] III. Production Process - Propylene can be produced from crude oil, propane, and coal. The main processes are catalytic cracking of heavy oil, naphtha steam cracking, propane dehydrogenation, and methanol - to - olefins. The propane dehydrogenation process currently accounts for nearly 33% of the total capacity and has become the main production process [9] IV. Propylene's Storage and Transport - Propylene can be stored in liquefied or compressed forms. Domestic transportation mainly includes road, railway, and pipeline, and international trade can use shipping. Special vehicles and containers are required for transportation due to its flammable nature [13][15] V. Delivery Standards - The benchmark delivery product is Type I propylene meeting GB/T 7716 - 2024, with water content ≤ 20mg/kg. Propylene with 20mg/kg < water content ≤ 50mg/kg can be used as an alternative delivery product, and the premium or discount is subject to exchange announcements [16] VI. Global Propylene Supply - Demand Pattern - Global propylene production capacity increased from 139 million tons in 2019 to 178 million tons at the end of 2024. The main production areas are North America, the Middle East, and Asia, with Northeast Asia having over 50% of the capacity, and China accounting for 42% in 2024. In 2024, demand was estimated between 153 million and 158 million tons, with demand growing in Northeast Asia and declining in North America and Western Europe. Global trade is regional, with Asia being the dominant market, and export volume has been shrinking [17][19][23] VII. China's Propylene Supply - Demand Pattern - China's propylene production capacity increased from 16.52 million tons/year in 2010 to 69.73 million tons/year in 2024, with an average annual growth rate of 12.8% from 2014 - 2024. Production is mainly concentrated in East and North China. In 2024, the apparent consumption was 55.3521 million tons, with a growth rate of 10.30%. The consumption areas are similar to the production areas, and the main downstream products include polypropylene, epoxy propane, acrylonitrile, etc., with new capacity expected to drive up propylene demand in 2025 [24][30][31] VIII. Import - Export Situation - China is a net importer of propylene. From 2016 - 2019, imports were around 3 million tons, with a dependence of about 10%. In 2024, imports and dependence dropped to 2.02 million tons and 3.7% respectively. Imports are expected to decline further, while exports are likely to have limited growth [41][43]