聚酯：供需矛盾演化，市场缺乏起色

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - PTA: With reduced maintenance of existing plants and upcoming new capacity, while the load of downstream polyester and end - users is falling, the spot processing fee of PTA is at a low level within the year, and the supply - demand contradiction is expanding, showing a weak fluctuation [3]. - MEG: The supply at home and abroad is lower than expected, and the port inventory is not high, so the futures price is relatively strong. However, due to the poor performance of polyester and end - users, the upside space is limited [3]. - Short - fiber: The absolute price fluctuates with raw materials. After the plant reduction, the processing fee has been repaired. Currently, it is difficult for the processing fee to rise further during the off - season of demand [3]. - Bottle - chip: The absolute price fluctuates with raw materials. Since the end of June, under the background of production reduction, the processing fee has improved. If the supply side does not narrow further, it may be difficult for the bottle - chip processing fee to increase again [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PTA - Cost - end: Recently, Fuhua's 1.6 million - ton plant is under maintenance, and Zhejiang Petrochemical has reduced its load with postponed maintenance. Shandong Weilian's 1 - million - ton plant is planned to restart in late July, and Tianjin Petrochemical is expected to have maintenance in July. FJDH is expected to have maintenance in September. The Asian PX load hovers around 73% - 74%. Due to the rigid demand support of PTA, the processing margin of PX in the medium - and short - term processes is relatively good, with PX - N around $250/ton [9]. - Supply: Recent maintenance mainly involves Fuhai Chuang's 4.5 - million - ton and Weilian Chemical's 2.5 - million - ton plants, both of which are shut down in conjunction with upstream PX plants and are expected to restart in August. Yisheng Hainan will stop for transformation on August 1st for three months. There will be fewer plants in need of maintenance later. The new plant of Sanfangxiang has been commissioned, and it is expected to start one production line first. Dushan Energy's 2.5 - million - ton plant will be put into operation in October, and the PTA supply is expected to increase significantly [9]. - Demand: Under the pressure of poor demand and high inventory of grey fabrics, the operating rates of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms and texturing machines have been continuously decreasing, currently at 56% and 61% respectively, lower than the same period in the previous two years. The current overall polyester load is around 88.5%. As of the week of July 10th, the inventories of POY, FDY, and DTY were 24.2, 24.7, and 29.4 days respectively. The cash flows of short - fiber and bottle - chip have improved under the support of partial plant reduction, and it is unlikely to further reduce the load significantly. However, the cash flows of filament POY and FDY have continued to decline, and recently, major filament factories have decided to start a new round of significant production reduction, which is currently being implemented [8][10]. - Processing Fee: The PTA industry is in an overall loss, the spot processing fee has narrowed to the low level of 216 yuan/ton within the year, and the 09 - contract processing fee on the futures market has dropped to around 300 yuan/ton, with limited room for improvement [9]. MEG - Supply: Due to the improved profit of coal - based ethylene glycol, the enthusiasm for plant operation after maintenance is high, and the current coal - based load has reached the relatively high range of 73%. The load of integrated plants is lower than expected. For example, Satellite Petrochemical's 900,000 - ton plant was originally planned to restart in mid - August but may be postponed due to the maintenance of the cracking plant. In addition, the ethylene glycol load of Zhejiang Petrochemical has unexpectedly decreased. In the overseas market, several Saudi plants were shut down due to power problems, involving a capacity of 1.7 million tons, and the recent restart has been difficult, which may affect the ethylene glycol arrival volume in August. Singapore Shell's 900,000 - ton plant is also planned to start maintenance in mid - August, affecting the import volume in August. Recently, the port inventory has been running below 500,000 tons, and the visible inventory is not high [11]. - Cost: The profit of non - coal - based MEG shows differentiation. The production loss of naphtha - based MEG is $106/ton, and the profit of ethylene - based MEG has improved to - $81/ton. Meanwhile, the port coal price is still hovering at a low level, and domestic coal - based ethylene glycol enterprises have a strong production willingness [11]. - Demand: Similar to PTA, under the pressure of poor demand and high inventory of grey fabrics, the demand is expected to weaken [11]. Short - fiber - Raw Materials: The supply of PTA is significantly increasing with reduced maintenance scale and new capacity, while the supply of ethylene glycol at home and abroad has unexpectedly narrowed, and the low port inventory provides some support, making it relatively strong [12]. - Processing Fee: Currently, the short - fiber operating rate is maintained at around 93%. In the week of July 17th, the short - fiber factory's equity inventory was 8 days, and the physical inventory was 15.5 days. The spot processing fee is around 1,100 yuan/ton. Downstream, due to the hot weather and weak demand, the average operating rate of pure - polyester yarn factories has dropped to 72.4%, the finished - product inventory of yarn factories is 23 days, up from last week, and the raw - material inventory is 7.5 days. Currently, during the domestic off - season of demand and lack of international orders, yarn factories have a weak purchasing willingness. Recently, the short - fiber processing fee is acceptable, and the production - reduction intensity may be limited [12]. Bottle - chip - Demand: From January to June, the cumulative output of soft drinks was 93.09 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.9% [12]. - Supply: Since late June, Huarun's three plants in Jiangyin, Changzhou, and Zhuhai have all reduced production by 20%, Hainan Yisheng's 1.25 - million - ton plant has been under maintenance, and Chongqing Wankai's 600,000 - ton plant has been under maintenance, with a total production capacity of 2.51 million tons involved [12]. - Processing Fee: The bottle - chip spot processing fee has risen from less than 200 yuan/ton in mid - June to around 400 yuan/ton. With the alleviation of supply pressure, the bottle - chip processing fee has improved in the short term. If the supply side does not narrow further, the upside space of the processing fee is also limited [12]. Market Data - PTA: The PTA processing fee is 217 yuan/ton, and the PX - N spread is $253/ton on July 16th [21][23]. - MEG: As of July 17th, the Jiangsu and Zhejiang ethylene glycol port inventory is 494,000 tons, the MEG factory inventory in June is 309,000 tons, and the MEG raw - material inventory of polyester factories in mid - July is 12.5 days. From January to May 2025, the cumulative MEG import was 3.2277 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 25% [33][37]. - Polyester Products: On July 9th and July 16th, 2025, the cash flows of filament POY were 136.66 and 12.85 respectively; the cash flows of filament FDY were - 88.34 and - 212.15 respectively; the cash flows of filament DTY were 50.00 and 100.00 respectively; the short - fiber spot processing fees were 1,185.21 and - 1,085.21 respectively; the bottle - chip spot processing fees were 437.89 and 426.24 respectively [43]. - Textile and Apparel Exports: From January to June 2025, the cumulative export of textile and apparel was $143.98 billion, including $70.52 billion in textile exports, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%, and $73.46 billion in clothing exports, a year - on - year decrease of 0.2%. In June, textile and apparel exports decreased year - on - year due to weak overseas demand and tariff impacts [66].