兴业期货日度策略-20250717

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the given reports. Core Viewpoints - The main investment strategies include holding long positions in cotton CF509, maintaining a buy I2509 - sell I2601 positive spread position in iron ore, and holding short positions in alumina AO2509. For other varieties, specific trading strategies are recommended based on their respective fundamentals and market trends [1][2]. - In the short - term, most varieties are expected to show volatile trends. However, from a long - term perspective, the stock index has a clear upward trend, while the trends of other varieties are mainly determined by their supply - demand relationships, policy factors, and macro - economic conditions [1]. Summary by Variety Stock Index - The main line of the stock index is not clear yet, and it is in a state of volatile accumulation. Although the market heat has increased significantly after the index broke through key points, the trading main line remains unclear, and the short - term breakthrough momentum is insufficient. It is expected to maintain high - level volatility in the short term and has a clear long - term upward trend due to the increasing enthusiasm of international capital for Chinese assets [1]. Treasury Bond - The bond market is in a high - level volatile state. The domestic economic growth is basically in line with expectations, and attention should be paid to the intensity of policy reinforcement. The liquidity expectation is cautious due to the tax period. The macro - environment lacks trend - driving factors, and the current low odds and high congestion restrict the further upward space of the bond market [1]. Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - Gold prices are in a high - level volatile state, and the gold - silver ratio is converging. Although there are many short - term disturbing factors, the long - term bullish factors for gold prices still hold. It is recommended to hold short positions of out - of - the - money put options on the 10 - contract for both gold and silver [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The copper price is in a narrow - range volatile state. The short - term tariff pressure on copper prices may continue, but the medium - term tight - balance pattern remains unchanged, and there is still support at the bottom [4]. - Aluminum and Alumina: Alumina is under pressure due to over - capacity, while the short - term upward momentum of Shanghai aluminum is limited, and attention should be paid to changes in inventory and demand expectations [4]. - Nickel: The nickel price is in a low - level consolidation state. The supply of nickel resources is relatively abundant, and the demand for downstream stainless steel is weak. The short - term lack of directional driving force is expected to continue the low - level consolidation [4]. - Lithium: The lithium price has insufficient upward driving force. The supply - demand structure of lithium carbonate remains loose, and it is recommended to sell on rallies during the current phased rebound [4]. Silicon Energy - The polysilicon market is expected to have wide - range volatile trends. The supply is expected to increase, but the "anti - involution" production - cut expectation provides support for prices, and the previous strategies can be continued [6]. Steel and Iron Ore - Rebar: The rebar price has strong support at the bottom. The supply - demand contradiction accumulates slowly, and the furnace material price is relatively firm. It is recommended to continue holding short positions of out - of - the - money put options [6]. - Hot - rolled Coil: The short - term fundamental contradiction of hot - rolled coil accumulates slowly. Although there are some negative factors on the margin, the cost support is strong. It is recommended to continue holding the profit - compression arbitrage strategy for the 01 - contract [6]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore price is expected to continue the volatile and upward trend. The supply - demand is relatively balanced, and the inventory is stable. It is recommended to adjust the option strategy and continue holding the 9 - 1 positive spread strategy [6]. Coking Coal and Coke - Both coking coal and coke prices are expected to be volatile and upward. The supply of coking coal is tight in the short - term, and the first - round price increase of coke has been gradually implemented, with a positive market outlook [8]. Soda Ash and Glass - Soda Ash: The supply of soda ash exceeds demand, and the long - short game is intense. The arbitrage strategy is temporarily better than the single - side strategy. It is recommended to hold short - term long positions in the 01 - contract for aggressive investors and continue the long - glass 01 - short - soda ash 01 arbitrage strategy [8]. - Float Glass: The short - term fundamentals of float glass change little. The "anti - involution" expectation and supply - contraction expectation provide support, but the demand expectation is weak. It is recommended to hold long positions in the 01 - contract and continue the arbitrage strategy [8]. Crude Oil - The crude oil price is in a high - volatility state. The increase in supply and the peak - season demand are in a stalemate, resulting in high - volatility trends [8]. Methanol - The coastal methanol price is falling, while the inland price has short - term support. The port inventory has increased significantly, and the supply - tightening expectation in the coastal area has failed to materialize [8][10]. Polyolefins - The polyolefin price is expected to continue falling. The production enterprise inventory has increased passively, and the supply is expected to increase while the demand is decreasing [10]. Cotton - The cotton price is expected to be volatile. The supply may be tight before the new cotton is listed, but the textile off - season restricts the price increase [10]. Rubber - The rubber price has limited upward space. The supply is increasing seasonally, and the demand is decreasing, resulting in a supply - increase and demand - decrease pattern [10].