国投期货软商品日报-20250717

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton, Pulp, Sugar, Natural Rubber, 20 - rubber, Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Apple: ★☆☆, representing a bias towards short, with a driving force for price decline, but poor operability on the market [1] - Logs: Not explicitly rated in the provided content Core Views - The prices of various commodities in the soft commodities market show different trends, affected by factors such as supply, demand, inventory, and weather. Overall, it is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term operations for most commodities [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton continued to rise sharply, with the spot sales basis of domestic cotton firm. The cotton industry chain showed stronger raw materials, and the price of pure cotton yarn increased. There may be a short - squeeze situation due to the post - point - pricing behavior of downstream enterprises. The operating rate of inland spinning enterprises decreased, while that of Xinjiang spinning enterprises remained high. As of the end of June, the commercial cotton inventory was 282.98 million tons, a decrease of 62.89 million tons compared with the end of May. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct intraday operations [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, the rainfall in the main producing areas in the second half of June was still heavy, affecting the sugarcane harvesting progress, and the sugarcane crushing volume decreased year - on - year. The sugar - making ratio increased year - on - year. In China, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. As of the end of June, the cumulative sugar sales in Guangxi increased year - on - year, the sales rate increased, and the industrial inventory decreased. The upward space of Zhengzhou sugar is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated weakly. The spot price remained stable. New early - maturing apples were on the market, and cold - storage apple prices began to decline. The demand for apples was low due to the large number of seasonal fruits and hot weather. As of July 11, the national cold - storage apple inventory decreased year - on - year. The market's trading focus shifted to the new season. It is recommended to maintain a short - biased thinking [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, Synthetic Rubber - RU&MR rose, BR fluctuated. The domestic natural rubber price increased slightly, and the synthetic rubber price generally rose. The global natural rubber supply was entering the high - yield period. In June, the synthetic rubber production increased year - on - year, and the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants decreased last week. In June, the output of Chinese rubber tires decreased year - on - year. The operating rate of domestic all - steel tires rebounded slightly, and that of semi - steel tires rebounded significantly. The inventory in Qingdao area increased. It is recommended to wait and see [5] Pulp - The pulp futures rose slightly. The spot prices remained stable. As of July 10, 2025, the inventory of mainstream imported pulp samples in China decreased compared with the previous period. The pulp import in June was still high year - on - year. The supply of pulp was relatively loose, the demand was weak, and it was in the traditional off - season. The pulp valuation was low, and domestic counter - subsidies boosted sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [6] Logs - The futures price rebounded sharply, and the spot price remained stable. The main reason for the rebound was that the spot price was at a historical low with limited downward space. The port arrival volume and inventory were low, and the spot price was expected to rise. The demand was in the off - season, and the inventory was low. The supply was expected to be favorable, but the price lacked the power to continue rebounding. It is recommended to wait and see [7]